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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward... ...But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage...
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
The Covid picture nationally continues to improve, with the seven-day average number of cases now at just 11.1K, down 24% from a week ago and 62% from a month ago.
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
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