Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Jan 2022 The First Look at January Payrolls is not for the Faint-Hearted

  • The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
  • The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
  • Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Jan 2022 Upside Risks in the December Core CPI, Headline Rate to Peak

  • Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
  • Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
  • Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Jan 2022 Covid Cases Peaking and will Soon Fall, Real-Time Activity Data to Follow

  • Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
  • The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
  • As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Jan 2022 December Payroll Risk is to the Upside, did Participation Rise Again

  • The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
  • A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
  • The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services, December

In one line: Still strong; supply pressures beginning to ease, a bit.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2022 While we were Out... Omicron Cases Rocketed, but not for Much Longer

  • Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
  • The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
  • The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Dec 2021 Headline Inflation Close to Peaking; the Core will Rise Much Further

  • Headline inflation is unlikely to rise much further, but the core rate still some way to climb.
  • Faster rent inflation is now well-established, and upward pressure elsewhere is yet to peak.
  • A steep drop inflation from next spring remains a good bet, but the Fed needs insurance.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Dec 2021 Debt Ceiling Deal Means More Net Issuance, as the Fed Tapers Faster

  • The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
  • Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
  • Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Dec 2021 Rates Set to Rise in May, but the Fed can Sit Out the Summer

  • The Fed likely will want to take out further insurance, beyond faster tapering, against upside inflation risk.
  • Restoring 2% inflation requires supply chains to ease, wage gains to slow, and productivity growth to rise.
  • Individually, these are all much better than 50/50 shots but the Fed needs them all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Dec 2021 Payroll Growth Still Struggling to Regain pre-Delta Momentum

  • Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
  • Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
  • Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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