Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

summer

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2022 US Monitor No Let-up in the Fed's Hawkishness, but Opinions are Split

  • Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
  • Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
  • The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Sept 2022 US Monitor Labor Market Uncertainties Abound, but the Big Picture is Still Strong

  • Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
  • Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
  • The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 July 2022 US Monitor Yet More Grim Housing Data Coming; Ignore Case-Shiller Price Numbers

The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.

Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.

Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2022 US Monitor The Peak Frenzy in Rental Markets is Over

CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.

Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.

The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed this Month, but it's Still Strong

Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.

Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.

Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2022 The Capital Stock Still Needs to be Rebuilt, Capex Plans will Rebound

Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...

But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.

Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, June

Manufacturing is suffering, but a modest late summer revival is a decent bet

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed Again in June; Wage Gains Subdued

Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.

We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.

The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 June 2022 New Home Sales Data are Wild, but the Collapsing Trend is Clear

New home sales have already dropped by 30% from their peak, but they have not hit bottom yet.

Inventory is rocketing, so prices are likely to come under severe pressure, very soon.

The surge in the Q1 current account deficit reflects the frenzy of inventory-building; it won’t last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 June 2022 Payrolls Likely Slowed in June, the Housing Rollover is Gathering Pace

Preliminary Homebase data suggest private payrolls rose by about 200K in June.

Real-time indicators are mixed, but some momentum recently appears to have been lost.

Existing home sales are falling steadily; inventory is surging and prices are starting to crumble.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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