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July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...
...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.
Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.
The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.
We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it’s usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to odd jumps and dips which turn out not to be significant.
In one line: Headline hit by fading stimulus kick, but still high.
Emerging evidence from the Homebase employment data suggests that the ending of federally-financed enhanced unemployment benefits in many states has not clearly pushed people back into the labor force, yet.
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