Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

29 June 2021 Is Benefit Curtailment Pushing People Back to Work

Emerging evidence from the Homebase employment data suggests that the ending of federally-financed enhanced unemployment benefits in many states has not clearly pushed people back...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

28 June 2021 Q2 Growth won't Hit Our Initial Hopes, but the Recovery is Strong

The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

1 Apr 2021 ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead

ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

30 Mar 2021 B117 is Driving up New Covid Cases, but the Recovery is not Cancelled

B117 is Driving up New Covid Cases, but the Recovery is not Cancelle

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Mar 2021 00:30U.S.

7 Jan 2021 The Biden Administration is Still Constrained, Despite Georgia Wins

Everything has changed in Washington after the Democrats won the Georgia Senate runoff elections, except the need to find 60 votes for fiscal measures which can't be passed...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jan 2021 00:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 22:20U.S.

7 Dec 2020 No Relief in Sight for the Labor Market

We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Dec 2020 The Bipartisan Covid Relief Bill is Welcome, but not Certain to Pass

The release yesterday of a $908B Covid relief bill, put together by a bipartisan group of senators, is good news.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

24 Nov 2020 Home Prices are Rocketing, but the Rapid Gains Likely won't Persist

The surge in U.S. median home prices has morphed from merely startling to truly remarkable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

9 Nov 2020 October Payrolls were Good, but Nothing Like Good Enough

October payrolls surprised us to the upside, prompting a wave of chatter from the commentariat to the effect that the labor market is healing. Well, it was healing, in the week...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

5 Nov 2020 Less Fiscal Push, More Monetary Easing, Stocks Up, Yields, USD Down

As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.

4 Nov 2020 Whatever Happens in the WH Race, the Senate Could Take Much Longer

The final run of the FiveThirtyEight election model gives Joe Biden an 89% chance of victory. In the accompanying commentary, however, they argue that it's a "fine line...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.

3 Nov 2020 Mr. Trump Might be Re-Elected, but the Odds are Against Him

It's entirely possible that Donald Trump will be re-elected today, but it is not very likely. The FiveThirtyEight model--the only one to give Mr. Trump much chance in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

21 Oct 2020 No Stimulus Deal Yet, but the Clock has not Yet Run Down Completely

As we reach our deadline on Tuesday afternoon, Eastern time, no agreement has been reached between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi on the next Covid relief...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

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