Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

savings

30 Sept 2022 US Monitor Savings Rundown Suggests People Want to Keep Spending

  • The steady rundown in pandemic savings this year suggests people want to keep spending...
  • ...Almost 90% of cumulative Covid savings remain, so they could easily support 2023 consumption.
  • The spread between core PCE and core CPI inflation is set to widen, in the right direction for the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Sept 2022 US Monitor Under Normal Conditions, Rates have Risen Enough to Cause Recession

  • The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
  • …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
  • If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2022 US Monitor Housing-Sensitive Retail is Set for a Pounding Over the Next Year

The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.

The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.

The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2022 US Monitor First Look at August Payrolls Suggests Another Hefty Increase

The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.

Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.

Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed Again in June; Wage Gains Subdued

Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.

We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.

The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2022 GDP Growth is Likely to Snap Back in Q3, Thanks to Trade and Inventories

Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.

The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.

Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2022 The Fed will Hike Until Inflation is Clearly Falling, and that's too Much

A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…

…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.

The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, April

Spending strong as people chip away at their huge pile of pandemic savings

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 May 2022 Yet More Downside Risk to Housing Data, the Floor is Months Away

 Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.

Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.

The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 May 2022 Consumption off to a Flying Start in Q1, Despite the Inflation Shock

The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.

People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.

The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May Don't Fret Over Falling Savings, People have Trillions in Excess Cash

 The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...

...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.

The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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