PM Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, February

Sales will remain stuck at low levels until affordability improves dramatically.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, February

Homebuilders continue to slash prices to shift excess supply.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February

A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, February

Reversal of January spike in control sales delayed, not cancelled.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, January

Weather and lower rates boosted sales; expect a drop in February

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, January

New home sales boosted by a lack of existing home supply.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, January

Sales have bottomed, but the downturn in prices will be the big story for housing in 2023.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, January

January strength in in retail sales unlikely to last, autos excepted.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, December

Downturn in home sales coming to an end, but sustained recovery is a long way off.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, December

The slump in new home prices has much further to run

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December

The fall in prices will gather pace in the months ahead

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, December

Consumption on the ropes heading into 2023

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

• A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
• Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
• Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, November

Plunge in new home sales still an accident waiting to happen

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, November

Rising inventory to accelerate the plunge in prices

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

19 Dec 2022 US Monitor The Fed Can Still Thread the Needle, but the Risk of Failure is High

• Our base case remains that inflation will be van- quished without a recession...
• ...But the Fed’s determination to take zero inflation risk makes the balancing act much more difficult.
• Core inflation is now falling, but the Fed wants wage growth to moderate; leading indicators are favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, November

Consumption growth still on for solid fourth quarter, but material slowdown coming next year.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

15 Dec 2022 US Monitor No Blink yet from the FOMC, but their Inflation Forecasts are Too High

• The FOMC now expects higher rates, slower growth and higher unemployment in 2023 than previously...
• ...But they expect higher inflation too, and that seems like a very strange call.
• Soft retail sales and industrial production data in November are a decent bet in today’s wave of data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Dec 2022 US Monitor Whatever Happened to October Payrolls, Slower Gains are Coming

The Homebase small business employment data point to a 250K increase in October payrolls...

...But whatever happened in October, job growth will slow markedly over the next few months.

A fourth straight modest hourly earnings number would strongly suggest the trend is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI/Pending Home Sales

Collapse in Chicago PMI is not definitive evidence of anything; pending home sales nearing a floor

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.