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- Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
- States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
- The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.
- In one line: Delta? What Delta?
- Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
- Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
- It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
- The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
- ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
- Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?
- Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
- The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
- Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs
- Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
- The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
- Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September
- We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
- China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
- New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales
- In one line: The trend has steadied in recent months after the spring drop.
- Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
- Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
- Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.
- Mortgage demand appears to be rebounding strongly, despite only a very modest dip in rates...
- ...Has the Covid surge triggered another—albeit smaller—flight to the suburbs?
- Jobless claims likely unchanged this week, but the trend is downwards, despite Delta.
- In one line: Sales have bottomed; inventory soaring.
- The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
- ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
- Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.
- In one line: Sales outperforming mortgage demand, but inventory is rising and price gains are slowing.
- FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
- The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
- Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.
- Thailand's economy defied gravity in Q2, but trade is unlikely to provide much of a boost—if any—in Q3.
- The Delta squeeze on consumption will persist, but a collapse is unlikely and capex should stay afloat.
- Don't read too much into the jump in remittances in the Philippines in June; the trend remains weak.
- In one line: Revisions mean the headlines overstate the gloom.
July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...
...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.
Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.
The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.
The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.
People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.