PM Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, December

Downturn in home sales coming to an end, but sustained recovery is a long way off.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, December

The slump in new home prices has much further to run

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December

The fall in prices will gather pace in the months ahead

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, December

Consumption on the ropes heading into 2023

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, November

Plunge in new home sales still an accident waiting to happen

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, November

Rising inventory to accelerate the plunge in prices

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, November

Consumption growth still on for solid fourth quarter, but material slowdown coming next year.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

15 Dec 2022 US Monitor No Blink yet from the FOMC, but their Inflation Forecasts are Too High

• The FOMC now expects higher rates, slower growth and higher unemployment in 2023 than previously...
• ...But they expect higher inflation too, and that seems like a very strange call.
• Soft retail sales and industrial production data in November are a decent bet in today’s wave of data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI/Pending Home Sales

Collapse in Chicago PMI is not definitive evidence of anything; pending home sales nearing a floor

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

29 Nov 2022 US Monitor Chainstore Sales Growth is Slowing

 Chain store sales growth is slowing; adverse base effects are only part of the story...

...Discount stores appear to be suffering as low- income households are squeezed.

Home prices are falling, probably at an accelerating rate, and consumers are glum.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Nov 2022 US Monitor Don't be Deceived by Strong-Looking Homes Sales and Orders

Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading

Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.

The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, October

Jump in sales impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can't be sustained

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

23 Nov 2022 US Monitor Capex Outperformed in Q3, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

• Business capital spending performed surprisingly well in Q3, but the outlook is deteriorating rapidly.
• Brace for a potential upside shock in today’s job claims numbers; the trend is turning.
• New home sales cannot fall forever but the near-term downside risk is clear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, October

Collapse in prices is coming

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

18 Nov 2022 US Monitor Can the Economy Really Grow by 4%+ in the Fourth Quarter?

• Forecasts of GDP growth over 4% in Q4 might be right, but at this point they are premature.
• Existing home sales likely fell again in October but can’t drop much further; prices can.
• Used vehicle auction prices nudged up in early November; we hope it’s noise, not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Consumer Refuses to Stick to the Rollover Script; 3%+ in Q4

• Strong retail sales suggest the consumer will drive fourth quarter GDP growth...
• ...Even as the non-auto manufacturing sector sinks into a mild recession.
• Housing construction is falling fast, but it still has a long way to go, even if demand bottoms soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, October 2022

Upward revisions and solid October signal a much stronger trend in core sales

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

16 Nov 2022 US Monitor Homebase Data Suggest Private Jobs Set for a 250K November Gain

• November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
• Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
• The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, September

Sales nearing a floor, but slump in prices is just beginning

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, September

Disconnect between sales and mortgage demand can't last much longer

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.