Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

retail

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2021 Homebase Jobs Look Soft for November, Official Data Likely Better

  • The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
  • ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
  • October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2021 Is Small Business Sentiment Rebounding as Delta Cases Fall?

  • Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
  • The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
  • Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Nov 2021 October Job Gains Still Constrained by Delta, but Better News is Coming

  • A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
  • ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
  • Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Oct 2021 Inflation Set for New Highs as Used Car Prices and Airline Fares Jump

Core CPI inflation looks set to power past 5% by the year-end as used car prices and airline fares rebound.

The peak will come early next year, but the rate will remain elevated for most of the year.

If unit labor costs remain controlled, the "transitory" story is sustainable, but expect pressure on the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2021 Rebounding Spending on Services will Lift Q4 Consumption

  • Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
  • We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
  • Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

  • Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
  • …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
  • Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2021 Delta Squeezed Payrolls in September, Again

  • September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
  • Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
  • Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2021 Auto Sales Dragged Down Q3 Consumption; Smaller Hit in Q4

  • The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
  • Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
  • New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2021 Brace for the Warning that Tapering is Coming in November

  • The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December.
  • Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will still be for the first move in 2023.
  • Existing home sales are falling slowly, while inventory is rising; price gains are slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales Signal Resilience in the Face of Delta

  • Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
  • States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
  • The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2021 Delta and Chip Shortages Likely Hit August Retail Sales

  • Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
  • Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
  • It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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