Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

retail

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, November

Consumption growth still on for solid fourth quarter, but material slowdown coming next year.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

15 Dec 2022 US Monitor No Blink yet from the FOMC, but their Inflation Forecasts are Too High

  • The FOMC now expects higher rates, slower growth and higher unemployment in 2023 than previously...
  • ...But they expect higher inflation too, and that seems like a very strange call.
  • Soft retail sales and industrial production data in November are a decent bet in today’s wave of data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Consumer Refuses to Stick to the Rollover Script; 3%+ in Q4

  • Strong retail sales suggest the consumer will drive fourth quarter GDP growth...
  • ...Even as the non-auto manufacturing sector sinks into a mild recession.
  • Housing construction is falling fast, but it still has a long way to go, even if demand bottoms soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, October 2022

Upward revisions and solid October signal a much stronger trend in core sales

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

16 Nov 2022 US Monitor Homebase Data Suggest Private Jobs Set for a 250K November Gain

  • November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
  • Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
  • The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, September

Solid September control sales puts consumption on good footing for fourth quarter

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, August

Auto sales bump offsets gas price drop; core gains slowing but will rebound

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Aug 2022 US Monitor No Shift in Stance from Powell, but 50bp is Still Possible Next Month

 The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...

...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.

The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Aug 2022 US Monitor What will the Coming Rollover in Vehicle Price do to Core Inflation?

Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of Au- gust, as inventory exceeded its 2019 level...

Prices will fall much further as production rebounds, driving down dealers’ margins, and core inflation.

The hotel recovery has lost steam since gas prices soared, but fall and holiday travel likely will be busy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2022 US Monitor Housing-Sensitive Retail is Set for a Pounding Over the Next Year

The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.

The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.

The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2022 US Monitor Q3 Consumption Started Strongly, Thanks to the Plunge in Gas Prices

 Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...

...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.

The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2022 US Monitor First Look at August Payrolls Suggests Another Hefty Increase

The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.

Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.

Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 July 2022 US Monitor Yet More Grim Housing Data Coming; Ignore Case-Shiller Price Numbers

The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.

Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.

Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2022 Gas Prices to Flatter June Retail Sales, but Core OK too

Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...

Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?

Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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