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Consumption growth still on for solid fourth quarter, but material slowdown coming next year.
Upward revisions and solid October signal a much stronger trend in core sales
Solid September control sales puts consumption on good footing for fourth quarter
Auto sales bump offsets gas price drop; core gains slowing but will rebound
The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...
...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.
The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.
Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of Au- gust, as inventory exceeded its 2019 level...
Prices will fall much further as production rebounds, driving down dealers’ margins, and core inflation.
The hotel recovery has lost steam since gas prices soared, but fall and holiday travel likely will be busy.
The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.
The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.
The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.
Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...
...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.
The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.
The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.
Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.
Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.
Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.
Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...
Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?
Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.
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