Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rents

12 Nov 2021 The Worst is Yet to Come: Core CPI Inflation will Soon Flirt with 7%

  • October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
  • ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
  • Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2021 October's Core CPI is at the Mercy of Used Cars, Airline Fares, and Rents

  • The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
  • Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
  • The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2021 Rebounding Spending on Services will Lift Q4 Consumption

  • Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
  • We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
  • Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Oct 2021 Has the CPI Accident Waiting to Happen, Just Happened?

  • September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
  • ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
  • Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2021 Expect a Light Touch from the Fed Today, and Some Delta Nerves

Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.

Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.

Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 June 2021 Mortgage Demand Appears to have Hit Bottom, Modest Recovery in H2

With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2021 Covid-Sensitive Components Drove the April CPI, What Next

In order to transition from low Covid-induced inflation to the sustained increases needed to persuade the Fed to tighten policy—remember, they have vowed to react to inflation data, not forecasts—three things have to happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence