Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rent

10 Nov 2022 US Monitor A Third Straight Core CPI Blowout is Unlikely, but not Impossible

  • Falling used auto prices and a reversal in health insurance prices should constrain the October core CPI.
  • We expect a 0.5% core increase, with a bit of downside risk, but rent is still a threat…
  • …And the disparate components of the core-core are unpredictable; they have overshot in recent months. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2022 US Monitor Monthly CPI rent increases likely have peaked

  • CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
  • Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
  • Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2022 US Monitor The Peak Frenzy in Rental Markets is Over

CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.

Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.

The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2022 The Core-Core CPI Spike in June is Scary, but Probably Noise

Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.

Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.

The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 July 2022 Core CPI Likely Moderated in June, Watch Airline Fares and Autos

Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...

...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.

The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed Again in June; Wage Gains Subdued

Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.

We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.

The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 July 2022 As Supply Chains Revert to Normal, Margins--and Inflation--have to Fall

Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...

...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.

The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 June 2022 No Promises for 75bp Hikes, and the Fed is too Blasé about Housing

Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.

Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.

Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2022 Housing Construction is Rolling Over, and it has Much Further to Fall

May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.

The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.

Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 June 2022 Behind the Noise, are Slower Wage Gains Constraining the Core CPI

We expect a 0.5% increase in the core CPI, led by rents, airline fares, and new vehicle prices...

...Behind this noise, though, the core-core CPI might now be slowing on a sequential basis.

The moderation in wage growth probably is reducing inflation pressure in an array of services components.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 May 2022 Four Reasons to Expect Core Inflation to Plunge Over the Next Year

We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...

Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.

The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence