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- December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
- CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
- China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
- Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.
- Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
- Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
- Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.
- Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
- The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
- As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.
- The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
- Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
- We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.
- The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
- A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
- The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.
- Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
- Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
- Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.
The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.
We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.
The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.
- Threats to rents, vehicle prices, airline fares and hotel room rates mean upside core CPI risk today.
- The next few months will see core inflation rise towards 7%; the Fed's pivot is a pre-emptive strike.
- It's still reasonable to expect inflation to fall very sharply next year, but the Fed can't be certain.
- The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
- Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
- Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.
- We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
- The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
- A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
- Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
- October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
- ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
- Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
- The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
- Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
- New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.