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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…
…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.
Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture.
Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008 disaster.
New home sales are now almost in line with mortgage demand, but price gains are set to slow very sharply
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.
The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.
We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
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