Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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12 Jan 2021 Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Nov 2020 18:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 19:10U.S.

16 Oct 2020 Upside Risk for September Sales, but the Q4 Outlook is Deteriorating

All the key measures of retail sales have returned to the trends in place before the Covid pandemic, thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits paid to people who lost their...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.

22 Sept 2020 Interest in the Housing Market is Peaking, but a Rout is Unlikely

We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the housing market, but momentum in the mortgage applications numbers has faded a bit in recent weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Aug 2020 17:10U.S.

25 Aug 2020 Strong Home Sales Coming, but Threats to the Rebound Increasing

We have been bullish about the housing market for some time now--since Google searches for "new homes" and mortgage demand began to pick up, in late April--but...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Aug 2020 17:10U.S.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Aug 2020 19:10U.S.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Aug 2020 19:20U.S.

22 July 2020 The Recovery in Existing Home Sales is Underway, More to Come

We remain very bullish on the housing market, given sustained 11-year highs in applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

16 July 2020 State Initial Claims Likely Down Again, but Lookout for PUA Claims

The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jul 2020 19:10U.S.

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