Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

recession

1 Nov 2022 US Monitor JOLTS Already Signals Slower Job Gains; Brace for a Further Decline

  • The plunge in job openings was the biggest surprise in the August data; what happened in September?
  • The ISM manufacturing index likely fell again in October, but it remains well above recession levels.
  • Auto sales appear to have rebounded very strongly in October as supply continued to improve.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2022 US Monitor Final Demand is Struggling, but Recession is not Inevitable

  • Q3 GDP growth flattered to deceive; domestic final demand barely rose.
  • The Q3 ECI should offer a bit of hope on the wages front, but the numbers are hard to forecast.
  • One monthly drop in core capex orders proves nothing, but weaker business surveys are ominous. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Proportionality Rule Suggests a Serious 2023 Recession is Unlikely

  • Recessions are proportional to the prior imbalances, and right now the private sector is in good shape…
  • …A brief over-reaction to the extent of the Fed’s tightening is possible; a deep recession is unlikely.
  • Hints of a pivot played well in markets last week, but the Fed needs better data, soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Fed has no Need to Hike Again After November, but they Will

  • Monetary policy soon will be very restrictive, if it isn’t already, but the Fed will tighten further.
  • The risk of a recession in the first half of 2023 has increased markedly…
  • …So we now expect the Fed to ease by 75bp in the second half of next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Sept 2022 US Monitor Under Normal Conditions, Rates have Risen Enough to Cause Recession

  • The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
  • …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
  • If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2022 US Monitor New Auto Sales Likely Stagnated in August, but Better News is Coming

  • Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
  • The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
  • ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence