U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
recession
- The plunge in job openings was the biggest surprise in the August data; what happened in September?
- The ISM manufacturing index likely fell again in October, but it remains well above recession levels.
- Auto sales appear to have rebounded very strongly in October as supply continued to improve.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Q3 GDP growth flattered to deceive; domestic final demand barely rose.
- The Q3 ECI should offer a bit of hope on the wages front, but the numbers are hard to forecast.
- One monthly drop in core capex orders proves nothing, but weaker business surveys are ominous.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Recessions are proportional to the prior imbalances, and right now the private sector is in good shape…
- …A brief over-reaction to the extent of the Fed’s tightening is possible; a deep recession is unlikely.
- Hints of a pivot played well in markets last week, but the Fed needs better data, soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Monetary policy soon will be very restrictive, if it isn’t already, but the Fed will tighten further.
- The risk of a recession in the first half of 2023 has increased markedly…
- …So we now expect the Fed to ease by 75bp in the second half of next year.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
- …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
- If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
- ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
- But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
- ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
- Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
- Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
- …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
- Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
- Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
- The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
- The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
- ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
