U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
real disposable incomes
- December’s Homebase data signal 400K payrolls, but big November revisions could shred the forecast.
- Whatever happened in December, we expect significantly slower job growth in the first half of next year.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment is bottoming, following the drop in mortgage rates, but housing is still very weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
- …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
- If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
- Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
- The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
- The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
- Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
- The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
