Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rates

27 June 2022 Soaring Rates Threaten Capex, but they Tell Only Part of the Story

Soaring rates threaten to put the brakes on the recovery in capex, but the case is not closed...

...Businesses have never had so much spare cash, and neither have consumers; how will they use it?

Expect more bad housing news today; pending home sales likely fell sharply again in May. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2022 Housing Construction is Rolling Over, and it has Much Further to Fall

May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.

The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.

Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2022 Will Home Sales Fall so Fast that Prices Drop too

The plunge in mortgage demand points to such a rapid drop in home sales that prices could easily fall...

...The risk is that homebuilders cut prices, forcing private sellers to follow suit.

Seasonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the increase in the underlying trend is modest.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 May 2022 Yet More Downside Risk to Housing Data, the Floor is Months Away

 Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.

Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.

The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 May 2022 Consumption off to a Flying Start in Q1, Despite the Inflation Shock

The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.

People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.

The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Mar 2022 No Sign Yet that Higher Gas Prices are Hurting Consumption

  • Near-real-time measures of consumer activity have continued to rise, despite the surge in gas prices.
  • The sharp decline in mortgage applications signals downside risk for February pending home sales.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely explain much, or even all, the decline in core February durable orders.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Feb 2022 No Decisions Made at the January FOMC, Opinions Appear Split

  • The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
  • The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
  • Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Feb 2022 Markets Expect too Much from the Fed in 2022, but not Enough Later

  • Markets are becoming too aggressive on the likely pace of Fed tightening this year...
  • ...But they aren't aggressive enough on the question of the terminal rate, given rising productivity growth.
  • They won't start to talk about rising r-star until much later this year, once the current inflation spike is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Feb 2022 Inflation is Approaching its Peak, but it's not Quite there Yet

  • No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
  • The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
  • ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Feb 2022 Base Effects will Lift January Inflation, Monthly Run-Rate has Peaked

  • An Omicron hit to airline fares and lodging costs sug- gests modest downside risk to January's core CPI.
  • Reweighting will not materially change the path of core inflation; fundamentals are what matter.
  • Vehicle prices are the most likely driver of downside inflation surprises in the spring and summer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Feb 2022 Mortgage Demand is Starting to Soften in the Face of Higher Rates

  • Higher mortgage rates are starting to depress demand; home sales will fall through mid-year, at least.
  • Falling demand and rising inventory will slow price gains and, eventually, dampen rent pressures.
  • The NFIB survey hints that the labor market might be easing a bit, at the margin.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Feb 2022 A Hit to the ISM from Omicron, but not a Knockout Blow

  • The ISM index likely dipped in January, but a big Omicron hit seems to have been averted.
  • The construction recovery has been driven entirely by housing, but the story is changing…
  • …Industrial and commercial construction is rebounding strongly, but housing activity is set to drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Jan 2022 The Omicron Hit is Set to Limit the Fed's Freedom to Act in March

  • We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
  • The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
  • By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Jan 2022 A March Hike but no Balance Sheet Decisions yet, all Options Open

  • Rates will rise in March, but Powell suggests no bal- ance sheet run-off announcement until May...
  • ...Even May is not certain, given the likelihood of a run of very weak activity data between now and then.
  • Q4 GDP growth enjoyed a last-minute boost from surging December inventories, upside risk today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Jan 2022 Consumers are Under Pressure, but the Omicron Hit will Fade Soon

  • Consumers are under short-term pressure from all sides, but the turn in spending will likely come soon.
  • Payrolls will be a bit slower to respond to falling Covid cases than the real-time activity data...
  • ...The January and February reports will both be scarred by Omicron, even as inflation rises further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence