Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.
Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.
The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.
Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...
But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.
Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.
Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.
Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.
The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.
Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.
Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.
Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.
A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…
But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…
…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.
The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.
The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.
The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.
The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.
Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.
We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...
Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.
The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.
We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...
...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.
AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.
The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.
The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.
The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.
Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.
The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence