Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rate hike

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2022 US Monitor The Peak Frenzy in Rental Markets is Over

CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.

Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.

The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2022 The Capital Stock Still Needs to be Rebuilt, Capex Plans will Rebound

Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...

But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.

Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 July 2022 Job Gains Strong but Likely will Slow

Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.

Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.

The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 June 2022 No Promises for 75bp Hikes, and the Fed is too Blasé about Housing

Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.

Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.

Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2022 How the Fed can Thread the Needle, Reducing Inflation with no Recession

A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…

But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…

…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 June 2022 Solid Payrolls, Rising Participation and Slower AHE = Happier Fed?

Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.

The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.

The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2022 Payroll Growth Appears to have Slowed, but it Remains Strong

The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.

The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.

Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 May 2022 Four Reasons to Expect Core Inflation to Plunge Over the Next Year

We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...

Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.

The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 May 2022 Payroll Gains Likely Moderated in April, a War Hit or a Slowing Trend

We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...

...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.

AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2022 Another 50bp Hike Likely in June, but then Bets are Off as Inflation Falls

Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…

…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.

First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Apr 2022 A 2/10 Inversion is not a Reliable Signal of Impending Recession

Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.

The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.

The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Apr 2022 FOMC Minutes Likely to Show Heightened Inflation Fears

The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.

Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.

The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Apr 2022 Payroll Growth is Slowing, but it's Still Solid; Wage Gains Moderating?

  • Payroll Growth is still Strong and broad, but the trend likely will moderate as previous peaks draw nearer
  • Participation continues to increase, suggesting that the period of peak supply/demand imbalance is over.
  • Wage growth looks to be moderating, but a 3.6% unemployment print signals a 50bp hike next month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Mar 2022 The BA.2 Omicron Covid Wave is Coming, it won't Break the Economy

  • The BA.2 Covid variant is about to trigger another wave of U.S. cases; expect a steep increase.
  • U.K. experience suggests that the hit to spending on services will be smaller than in the previous wave.
  • New home sales likely fell in February; either way, activity is set to drop over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Mar 2022 Energy is Driving Headline PPI, but the Core Rate will Soon Fall Rapidly

  • The February PPI likely was boosted by soaring energy and food prices, but the March hit will be bigger.
  • Core PPI inflation likely peaked in February; it looks set to fall sharply from the spring onwards.
  • Base effects will hugely depress year-over-year chainstore sales growth over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Mar 2022 February Payrolls Look Solid, but Forecast Margins of Error are Wide

  • The Homebase data suggest February payrolls rose about 600K, but the margin or error is very wide.
  • Wage growth recently has been much too strong for the Fed's comfort, but rising labor supply should help.
  • The third straight drop in the ISM services index was disappointing, but a March rebound is a good bet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence