Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rate hike

28 July 2021 Expect a Light Touch from the Fed Today, and Some Delta Nerves

Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 July 2021 Upside Risk for June Payrolls, Home base Data Point to 1M Private Jobs

Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2021 Is the Fed Ready to Creep Towards a Conversation About Tapering

Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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