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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Productivity is stabilizing; jobless claims still low and steady.
Business lending standards are tightening, but credit growth is still strong, for now.
Plunging new home sales are dragging down prices, and hurting service sector activity surveys.
Upside risk for July durable goods orders today, but the housing collapse is worsening by the month.
The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…
…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound.
More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.
The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.
The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.
We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...
Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.
The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.
Productivity noise swamps the signal
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