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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward... ...But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage...
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
U.S. Jobless Claims 5 6 21, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q1 2021
Unit Labor Costs Point to Higher Inflation, Further Gains Ahead
What's Driving ECI Wages, Technicalities, or Real Pressures
The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear
A Capital Stock Rebuild and Rising R-star is Still a Good Post-Covid Bet
The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...
ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead
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