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The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.
We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.
Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.
Homebase employment data point to downside risk against consensus for July payrolls…
…But the problem remains lack of supply, not lack of demand; expect things to change in the fall
Look for unemployment to dip, and another solid increase in average hourly earnings.
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