Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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16 Aug 2022 US Monitor Current Labor Costs Growth is Scary, but it won't be Sustained

The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…

…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound. 

More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, June

Flattered by higher oil prices, but expect Q2 GDP forecasts to move up nonetheless

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 July 2022 US Monitor The Fed will Hike by 75bp Today; Hints of a Dovish Shift Unlikely

The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.

Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.

Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 July 2022 US Monitor Yet More Grim Housing Data Coming; Ignore Case-Shiller Price Numbers

The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.

Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.

Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2022 US Monitor The Peak Frenzy in Rental Markets is Over

CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.

Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.

The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2022 US Monitor The Housing Rollover is Gathering Pace

Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...

Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.

Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2022 The Capital Stock Still Needs to be Rebuilt, Capex Plans will Rebound

Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...

But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.

Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2022 The Core-Core CPI Spike in June is Scary, but Probably Noise

Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.

Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.

The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 July 2022 Core CPI Likely Moderated in June, Watch Airline Fares and Autos

Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...

...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.

The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, June

Small firms don’t like falling stock prices; inflation pressures easing

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2022 Small Business Owners are Glum, but Look too for Signs of Easing Inflation

We expect a further clear deterioration in small business owners’ sentiment...

...But the labor market is not quite as tight as last summer, and inflation pressures likely have eased.

Real-time data are still holding up, though July 4 distortions obscure the very latest picture.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed Again in June; Wage Gains Subdued

Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.

We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.

The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2022 The June Minutes are Out of Date Already, Three Weeks is a Long Time

The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...

Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.

Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2022 GDP Growth is Likely to Snap Back in Q3, Thanks to Trade and Inventories

Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.

The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.

Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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