26 Apr 2022 New Home Sales are Heading South, but the Data are Volatile

The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.

Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.

Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Mar 2022. The Housing Market is Starting to Roll Over; Soaring Rates are Hurting

• Home sales have much further to fall as the surge in rates bites; payments are up 27% since September.
• Falling sales will hit economic growth, at the margin, but rising supply will dampen price gains...
• ...And slowing price increases eventually will feed into slowing rent inflation, but likely not until next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Feb 2022 Expect a Big Jump in Headline January Retail Sales; Core is Wild

• A gratifyingly huge leap in auto sales likely will flatter today's headline January retail sales...
• The core will be mixed, but we hope falling restaurant sales were offset by gains elsewhere.
• A weather-driven leap in utility output likely will hide soft January manufacturing data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Feb 2022 Omicron is Fading, but Recovery is Still Early, and BA.2 is a Risk

• U.S. Covid cases are plunging, and the worst of the economic hit seems to be over...
• ...But the recovery is still early-stage, and the BA.2 variant could push cases back up, temporarily.
• Small firms' sentiment likely hit by stock market vola- tility; what's happening to prices?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, December

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

• The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
• As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
• Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.