U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
ppi
PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Core PPI hit by several one-time factors; February will be better
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Margin inflation is trending down, and has a long way to go.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
The Great Margin Recompression is underway; it has a long way to run
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Great Margin Recompression is underway; it has a long way to run
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The explosion in margins during the pandemic explains most of the overshoot in core inflation.
- Supply-chain and inventory data point to rapid margin re-compression, starting anytime now.
- The headline Empire State index likely nudged up a bit this month, but watch for falling capex plans.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Favorable underlying trends persist, behind the noise
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling rapidly, with both the goods and services components rolling over…
- The plunge in PPI services inflation is being driven by margins, which have a long, long, way to fall.
- Supply constraints mostly have gone, and many retailers now have far too much inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
- Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
- Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
- A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
- ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
- Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.
- Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
- Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
- Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
- Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
