Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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25 Jan 2021 Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

14 Dec 2020 Soaring Margins Could Drive Inflation if Demand Explodes Post-Covid

The conventional way to model U.S. inflation a year or two ahead is to start with a projection for the rate of increase of unit labor costs, and then tweak it to account for...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

23 Nov 2020 Increased QE More Likely After the Treasury Kills Fed Lending Programs

The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and PPI, August 2020

In one line: The labor market has stalled; PPI boosted by autos and healthcare services.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Sep 2020 11:38U.S.

10 Sept 2020 Initial Claims are Falling, but the Bigger Picture is Still Disconcerting

We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Sep 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Aug 2020 The Fed's Focus is Jobs, No Hike Unless Inflation Runs Riot

The difficulty with the Fed's shift in strategy, to the pursuit of an average 2% inflation target "over time", is that they don't have the means in the near term...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Aug 2020 18:10U.S.

31 July 2020 Q3 Growth Could be as High as 25%, but Payrolls won't Play Along

The only significant surprise in the terrible second quarter GDP numbers was the 2.7% increase in government spending, led by near-40% leap in the federal nondefense component.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Jul 2020 20:10U.S.

14 July 2020 The Downdraft in the Core CPI Likely is Over, but Risks Remain

We have no argument with the FOMC's view that the Covid crisis is a disinflationary event, but the run of three straight outright month-to-month declines in the core CPI...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

10 July 2020 Rising PUA Jobless Claims Signal Real Pain from the Second Wave

We were happy to see initial jobless claims fall to a 15-week low of 1,314K yesterday, but the labor market is still in a terrible state.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims & PPI, May 2020

In one line: Claims still heading down, but possible trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jun 2020 10:22U.S.

29 May 2020 Continuing Claims are Falling, but the Downshift is Modest, so Far

We learned yesterday that the patchy but widespread reopening of the economy is triggering the first wavelet of rehiring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2020 20:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. PPI and Jobless Claims

In one line: Core PPI inflation will soon plummet; jobless claims will rise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Mar 2020 10:49U.S.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

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