Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ppi

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI/Empire State Survey

PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, January

Core PPI hit by several one-time factors; February will be better

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, November

Margin inflation is trending down, and has a long way to go.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, October 2022

The Great Margin Recompression is underway; it has a long way to run

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, October

The Great Margin Recompression is underway; it has a long way to run

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2022 US Monitor Have PPI Margins Started to Turn Down? They have a Long Way to Go.

  • The explosion in margins during the pandemic explains most of the overshoot in core inflation.
  • Supply-chain and inventory data point to rapid margin re-compression, starting anytime now.
  • The headline Empire State index likely nudged up a bit this month, but watch for falling capex plans.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, September

Favorable underlying trends persist, behind the noise

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Fast

  • Core PPI inflation is falling rapidly, with both the goods and services components rolling over…
  • The plunge in PPI services inflation is being driven by margins, which have a long, long, way to fall.
  • Supply constraints mostly have gone, and many retailers now have far too much inventory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence