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Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
In one line: Powell sticks to the line as inflation rises.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
Too Soon for Taper Talk, Again, Despite the Improving Outlook
More Powell Pushback on Taper Timing Coming Today
Stimulus Payments are Turbo-Charging Spending; Inflation Next?
No Taper Talk Yet from Chair Powell, Forecast Improvement is not Enough
The Fed will Stick to its Guns Today, no Changes to QE, and no Taper
8 Mar 2021 February Payrolls are Just a Taste of Much Bigger Gains to Come, Soon
24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties
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