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The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.
We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.
Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
In one line: Powell sticks to the line as inflation rises.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it’s usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to odd jumps and dips which turn out not to be significant.
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from
the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local government sector, while the increase in June private sector payrolls was not statistically significantly bigger than in May.
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply, limiting the pace of payroll gains and—probably—pushing up wage growth.
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
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