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Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
Manufacturing Growth has Peaked, for now; Inflation Pressure has not
More Powell Pushback on Taper Timing Coming Today
Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2
No Taper Talk Yet from Chair Powell, Forecast Improvement is not Enough
Deeply Embedded Low Inflation Psychology didn't End Well in the 60s
The Labor Market for Small Businesses has Tightened Sharply
Does the U.S. have Enough Immunity to be Squeezing Covid Already
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