Pantheon Macroeconomics

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25 Jan 2021 Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

17 Dec 2020 Opportunity Missed as the FOMC Leaves QE Unchanged

The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, by choosing not to increase the weighted average maturity--WAM--of its Treasury purchases.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

14 Dec 2020 Soaring Margins Could Drive Inflation if Demand Explodes Post-Covid

The conventional way to model U.S. inflation a year or two ahead is to start with a projection for the rate of increase of unit labor costs, and then tweak it to account for...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

5 Nov 2020 Less Fiscal Push, More Monetary Easing, Stocks Up, Yields, USD Down

As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

21 Sept 2020 Why won't the Fed Offer Outcome-based Guidance for its QE Program?

The Fed has given itself and markets clear guidance on the minimum requirements for a rate hike-- maximum employment, and inflation at 2% and on track "moderately"...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

17 Sept 2020 The Fed Adopts Outcome-Based Guidance, Raising the Rate Hike Bar

The Fed yesterday formally adopted outcome-based forward guidance, setting out the conditions under which rates will rise: "The Committee... expects it will be appropriate to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Sep 2020 20:10U.S.

16 Sept 2020 The Fed will Emphasize its Pursuit of Maximum Employment Today

It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

27 Aug 2020 The Fed's Framework Review Likely Means Data-Contingent Guidance

We're assuming that Chair Powell will offer at least some comment on the current state of the economy and the outlook in his virtual Jackson Hole speech at 09:10 Eastern time...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Aug 2020 18:10U.S.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jul 2020 20:10U.S.

29 July 2020 No Big Changes from the Fed Today, but Enhanced Guidance is Coming

We argued in the Monitor on Friday--see here--that the Fed likely will increase the pace of its Treasury purchases, in order to ensure that the wave of supply needed to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

24 July 2020 Will the Fed Step-up the Pace of QE as Issuance Surges Again

If Congress passes another Covid relief bill early next month, as we fully expect, it will have to be financed quickly via increased debt issuance.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

12 June 2020 Rising Covid Hospitalizations in the South are About Spread, not Testing

We have drawn attention over the past couple of weeks in our daily Coronavirus Update to the rising trend in new cases in some states, mostly in the South.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

10 June 2020 No Formal Yield Curve Control Announcement Today. Probably.

We would be surprised, but not astonished, if the Fed were to announce a shift to explicit yield curve control at today's meeting.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jun 2020 18:30U.S.

2 June 2020 Auto Sales are Rebounding Quickly, No Nike Swoosh Here

The May auto sales numbers probably will be released just after our deadline at 4pm eastern time today, but all the signs are that a hefty rebound will be reported after...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

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