Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

policymakers

18 Nov 2021 The Fed has Three Conditions for Rate Hikes, One is Still Some Way Off

  • The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
  • ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
  • The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Nov 2021 October Job Gains Still Constrained by Delta, but Better News is Coming

  • A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
  • ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
  • Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Nov 2021 Tapering is Coming, but what will Chair Powell Say About Inflation

  • The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
  • Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
  • Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Oct 2021 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but are they an Inflation Threat

  • Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
  • ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
  • The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2021 November Tapering is on Track, Barring Debt Ceiling Chaos

  • The FOMC is on course to taper in November, provid- ed markets aren't in turmoil over the debt ceiling.
  • The Fed's new economic forecasts are much more realistic, but FOMC opinions are spread widely.
  • Chair Powell remains confident that inflation will be contained; upward forecast revisions are no big deal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2021 Brace for the Warning that Tapering is Coming in November

  • The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December.
  • Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will still be for the first move in 2023.
  • Existing home sales are falling slowly, while inventory is rising; price gains are slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Aug 2021 While we were Out... the Macro Data Improved, but Delta Raged

The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.

The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.

People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2021 Progress Made, but not "Sufficient Further Progress", Yet

Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.

The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.

Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it’s usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to odd jumps and dips which turn out not to be significant.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2021 What are the Chances of a 1M Payroll Print for June

The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2021 Is the Fed Ready to Creep Towards a Conversation About Tapering

Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply, limiting the pace of payroll gains and—probably—pushing up wage growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night. The 559K increase in payrolls was welcome, and it marked a clear improvement on April's revised 278K gain, but it left the economy still 7.6M jobs down from the pre-Covid level, and nearly 11M short of the level we would have expected if the pandemic hadn't happened.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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