Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

policy

17 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Fed has no Need to Hike Again After November, but they Will

  • Monetary policy soon will be very restrictive, if it isn’t already, but the Fed will tighten further.
  • The risk of a recession in the first half of 2023 has increased markedly…
  • …So we now expect the Fed to ease by 75bp in the second half of next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Sept 2022 US Monitor Under Normal Conditions, Rates have Risen Enough to Cause Recession

  • The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
  • …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
  • If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2022 US Monitor Monthly CPI rent increases likely have peaked

  • CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
  • Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
  • Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Aug 2022 US Monitor No Shift in Stance from Powell, but 50bp is Still Possible Next Month

 The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...

...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.

The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Lending Standards are Tightening, but no Hit is Visible, Yet

Business lending standards are tightening, but credit growth is still strong, for now.

Plunging new home sales are dragging down prices, and hurting service sector activity surveys.

Upside risk for July durable goods orders today, but the housing collapse is worsening by the month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2022 US Monitor Housing-Sensitive Retail is Set for a Pounding Over the Next Year

The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.

The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.

The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 July 2022 US Monitor Too Soon for a Less-Hawkish Fed, but the Swerve is Coming in September

More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.

Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.

As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 June 2022 No Promises for 75bp Hikes, and the Fed is too Blasé about Housing

Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.

Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.

Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2022 The Fed will Hike Until Inflation is Clearly Falling, and that's too Much

A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…

…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.

The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2022 Higher Oil Prices are Bad News for Most Manufacturers, but not All

Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.

Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.

May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2022 Homebase Data Suggest May Payrolls Rose by About 250K

The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.

Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.

Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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