Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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pmi

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, June 2021; Pending Home Sales, May 2021

In one line: Surprising in opposite directions, but neither looks representative of the broader economy,

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2021

In one line: Remarkable, but probably not indicative of the national picture.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2021 Jobless Claims Set to Drop; Last Week's Spike was a Seasonal Fluke

The spike in initial jobless claims last week was merely a correction after a run of below-trend readings, and we expect it to reverse over the next couple weeks. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2021 Covid Cases Surging Post-Holiday, but they won't Beyond Mid-month

While we were out, confirmed U.S. Covid-19 cases fell as Christmas approached—the seven-day average hit a three-week low on December 28—but they have since rebounded...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Dec 2020 The Bipartisan Covid Relief Bill is Welcome, but not Certain to Pass

The release yesterday of a $908B Covid relief bill, put together by a bipartisan group of senators, is good news.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2020 Help is Needed for the Unemployed, but the Employed Drive Growth

While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, November 2020

In one line: Even the strongest parts of the economy can't accelerate indefinitely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, October 2020

In one line: Yet more evidence that the manufacturing rebound continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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