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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Surprising in opposite directions, but neither looks representative of the broader economy,
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
In one line: Remarkable, but probably not indicative of the national picture.
Manufacturing is Still Recovering, but Momentum has Eased
Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way
ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead
1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields
Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, January 2021
The spike in initial jobless claims last week was merely a correction after a run of below-trend readings, and we expect it to reverse over the next couple weeks.
Manufacturing is Still on Track, Even if the December ISM Fell
While we were out, confirmed U.S. Covid-19 cases fell as Christmas approached—the seven-day average hit a three-week low on December 28—but they have since rebounded...
The release yesterday of a $908B Covid relief bill, put together by a bipartisan group of senators, is good news.
While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...
In one line: Even the strongest parts of the economy can't accelerate indefinitely.
In one line: Don't get carried away by the three-year high.
In one line: Yet more evidence that the manufacturing rebound continues.
Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.
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