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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...
We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak.
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
ADP Likely will Show Payrolls Rose, but didn't Rocket, in April
Manufacturing Growth has Peaked, for now; Inflation Pressure has not
More Powell Pushback on Taper Timing Coming Today
Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2
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