Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

pce

16 Aug 2022 US Monitor Current Labor Costs Growth is Scary, but it won't be Sustained

The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…

…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound. 

More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 July 2022 US Monitor Too Soon for a Less-Hawkish Fed, but the Swerve is Coming in September

More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.

Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.

As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2022 The Core-Core CPI Spike in June is Scary, but Probably Noise

Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.

Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.

The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2022 The June Minutes are Out of Date Already, Three Weeks is a Long Time

The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...

Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.

Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 July 2022 As Supply Chains Revert to Normal, Margins--and Inflation--have to Fall

Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...

...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.

The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2022 How the Fed can Thread the Needle, Reducing Inflation with no Recession

A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…

But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…

…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2022 The Fed will Hike Until Inflation is Clearly Falling, and that's too Much

A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…

…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.

The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 May 2022 Four Reasons to Expect Core Inflation to Plunge Over the Next Year

We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...

Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.

The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2022 The Dip in April PPI Margins is a Hint of Better Inflation News Ahead

Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.

Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.

Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May Don't Fret Over Falling Savings, People have Trillions in Excess Cash

 The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...

...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.

The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Apr 2022 Economic Growth will Rebound in Q2, the Fundamentals are Solid

The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.

Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.

A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence