Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2021 What are the Chances of a 1M Payroll Print for June

The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2021 Is the Fed Ready to Creep Towards a Conversation About Tapering

Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2021 Brace for Rising Covid Cases as the Delta Variant Takes Hold

We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2021 Inflation is Unpredictable; Be Open-Minded

First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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