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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.
Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.
The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.
The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.
The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.
Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.
Core CPI inflation looks set to power past 5% by the year-end as used car prices and airline fares rebound.
The peak will come early next year, but the rate will remain elevated for most of the year.
If unit labor costs remain controlled, the "transitory" story is sustainable, but expect pressure on the Fed.
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
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