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Consumption started the fourth quarter quite strongly; 3%-plus seems a decent bet.
Core PCE price pressures eased sequentially in October; further down shifts ahead?
Last week’s jump in the initial jobless claims likely was not a fluke; the trend probably is rising.
The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...
...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.
The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.
Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...
...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.
The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.
The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…
…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound.
More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.
Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.
All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.
Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.
The core PCE deflator spike looks like a fluke, we hope
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.
Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.
The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...
...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.
The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year
Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…
…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.
The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.
QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...
...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.
Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.
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