Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

payrolls

2 Dec 2022 US Monitor Whatever Happened to October Payrolls, Slower Gains are Coming

The Homebase small business employment data point to a 250K increase in October payrolls...

...But whatever happened in October, job growth will slow markedly over the next few months.

A fourth straight modest hourly earnings number would strongly suggest the trend is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2022 US Monitor Homebase Data Suggest Private Jobs Set for a 250K November Gain

  • November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
  • Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
  • The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Nov 2022 US Monitor Debt Ceiling, Government Spending Path are Contingent on Elections

  • Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
  • The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
  • Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Oct 2022 US Monitor Homebase Data Signal a Sharp Slowdown in October Payrolls

  • The initial Homebase data for the October survey week point to much weaker payroll growth.
  • Hurricane Ian likely accounts for some of the slowing, but most of it looks to be real.
  • Housing construction as falling; it has a long way to go, given the ongoing plunge in home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Oct 2022 US Monitor Payroll Growth Likely Slowed a Bit in September, but Upside AHE Risk

  • The Homebase employment data suggest Septem- ber payrolls rose by about 300K.
  • The unwinding of August’s calendar quirk signals upside risk for average hourly earnings.
  • Job growth is strong enough to push unemployment down, but it is being offset by rising participation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2022 US Monitor No Let-up in the Fed's Hawkishness, but Opinions are Split

  • Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
  • Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
  • The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Sept 2022 US Monitor Labor Market Uncertainties Abound, but the Big Picture is Still Strong

  • Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
  • Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
  • The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2022 US Monitor New Auto Sales Likely Stagnated in August, but Better News is Coming

  • Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
  • The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
  • ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2022 US Monitor ADP is Back Today, but no Details on the New Method have been Released

  • The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
  • The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
  • Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence