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The Homebase small business employment data point to a 250K increase in October payrolls...
...But whatever happened in October, job growth will slow markedly over the next few months.
A fourth straight modest hourly earnings number would strongly suggest the trend is slowing.
The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.
The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.
The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.
The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.
Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.
Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.
Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.
All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.
Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.
Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.
Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.
Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.
The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.
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