Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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payroll

3 Mar 2021 ADP Likely to Signal Stronger Payrolls in February

3 Mar 2021 ADP Likely to Signal Stronger Payrolls in February

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Mar 2021 19:20U.S.

2 Mar 2021 The Services Sector is Stirring as Covid Cases Plunge

2 Mar 2021 The Services Sector is Stirring as Covid Cases Plunge

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Mar 2021 19:30U.S.

8 Jan 2021 December Payrolls are Wild, but Risk to Consensus is Mostly to the Upside

December Payrolls are Wild, but Risk to Consensus is Mostly to the Upside

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

7 Jan 2021 The Biden Administration is Still Constrained, Despite Georgia Wins

Everything has changed in Washington after the Democrats won the Georgia Senate runoff elections, except the need to find 60 votes for fiscal measures which can't be passed...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

6 Jan 2021 ISM Prices Paid Lifted by Oil Prices, the Real Inflation Risk is Elsewhere

We are not unduly concerned by the jump in theISM manufacturing prices paid index in January, toits highest level since May 2018.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

22 Dec 2020 The Revival of the PPP is the Best Part of the New Covid Relief Bill

The biggest single component of the new Covid relief bill is the re-funding of the Paycheck Protection Program, with a total of $284B

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

7 Dec 2020 No Relief in Sight for the Labor Market

We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

4 Dec 2020 Downside Risk for November Payrolls, with Worse to Come

The risk to today's November payroll numbers is to the downside, relative to the 475K consensus.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

3 Dec 2020 What does ADP Tell us About November's Official Jobs Data

November's 307K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls report was much stronger than we expected, but below the 440K consensus.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Dec 2020 19:10U.S.

2 Dec 2020 The Bipartisan Covid Relief Bill is Welcome, but not Certain to Pass

The release yesterday of a $908B Covid relief bill, put together by a bipartisan group of senators, is good news.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

18 Nov 2020 The Restaurant Recovery Stalled in October, Reversal in November

After five straight months of gains, during which the food service component of retail sales recovered 73% of the ground lost in March and April, during the initial Covid...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

10 Nov 2020 The Post-Covid Era is no Longer Just a Dream, but it's Not Here Yet

Pfizer's announcement yesterday provided the answer to the--rhetorical--question we've been asking for months: Do you want to be short equities the day we learn...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Nov 2020 17:40U.S.

9 Nov 2020 October Payrolls were Good, but Nothing Like Good Enough

October payrolls surprised us to the upside, prompting a wave of chatter from the commentariat to the effect that the labor market is healing. Well, it was healing, in the week...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

5 Nov 2020 Less Fiscal Push, More Monetary Easing, Stocks Up, Yields, USD Down

As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

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