U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
payroll
- Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
- Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
- Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
- The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
- ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
- October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
- Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
- A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
- ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
- Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
- As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
- Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
- It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
- As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
- ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
- Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
- ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
- The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
- Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
- Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
- Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
- Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The FOMC is on course to taper in November, provid- ed markets aren't in turmoil over the debt ceiling.
- The Fed's new economic forecasts are much more realistic, but FOMC opinions are spread widely.
- Chair Powell remains confident that inflation will be contained; upward forecast revisions are no big deal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
