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Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.
Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.
Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.
Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.
Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.
The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.
Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.
We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.
The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.
Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.
The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.
Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.
Preliminary Homebase data suggest private payrolls rose by about 200K in June.
Real-time indicators are mixed, but some momentum recently appears to have been lost.
Existing home sales are falling steadily; inventory is surging and prices are starting to crumble.
Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.
PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.
Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.
We expect a 0.5% increase in the core CPI, led by rents, airline fares, and new vehicle prices...
...Behind this noise, though, the core-core CPI might now be slowing on a sequential basis.
The moderation in wage growth probably is reducing inflation pressure in an array of services components.
The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...
...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.
The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.
Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.
The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.
The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.
The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.
The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.
Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.
Payroll growth likely has slowed, but ADP is unreliable
The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.
The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.
Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.
The upturn in jobless claims is no reason to panic; consumer data are still strengthening.
Philly Fed capex plans have tanked, but other surveys are less weak; watch the hard orders data.
The housing rollover is gathering speed; housing- related retail is in for a very tough time.
The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.
Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.
Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.
The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…
…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.
Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.
Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.
Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.
If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.
We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...
...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.
AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
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