Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil sector

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, June

Flattered by higher oil prices, but expect Q2 GDP forecasts to move up nonetheless

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 July 2022 US Monitor The Fed will Hike by 75bp Today; Hints of a Dovish Shift Unlikely

The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.

Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.

Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2022 US Monitor The Housing Rollover is Gathering Pace

Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...

Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.

Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2022 The Capital Stock Still Needs to be Rebuilt, Capex Plans will Rebound

Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...

But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.

Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2022 The Core-Core CPI Spike in June is Scary, but Probably Noise

Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.

Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.

The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2022 GDP Growth is Likely to Snap Back in Q3, Thanks to Trade and Inventories

Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.

The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.

Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 June 2022 Q2 Rebound in Foreign Trade Likely to be Smaller than we Hoped

The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…

…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.

Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2022 Margin Re-Compression is Key to Lower Inflation, Progress in the PPI

Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.

PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.

Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 June 2022 Behind the Noise, are Slower Wage Gains Constraining the Core CPI

We expect a 0.5% increase in the core CPI, led by rents, airline fares, and new vehicle prices...

...Behind this noise, though, the core-core CPI might now be slowing on a sequential basis.

The moderation in wage growth probably is reducing inflation pressure in an array of services components.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2022 Higher Oil Prices are Bad News for Most Manufacturers, but not All

Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.

Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.

May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 May 2022 Four Reasons to Expect Core Inflation to Plunge Over the Next Year

We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...

Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.

The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 May 2022 The Extent of the Housing Rollover Finally is Laid Bare

The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.

Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?

April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 May 2022 New Home Sales are Set for a Steep Drop, Prices are Vulnerable too

New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.

Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.

Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2022 Homebase Data Suggest May Payrolls Rose by About 250K

The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.

Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.

Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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