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- Forecasts of GDP growth over 4% in Q4 might be right, but at this point they are premature.
- Existing home sales likely fell again in October but can’t drop much further; prices can.
- Used vehicle auction prices nudged up in early November; we hope it’s noise, not signal.
- November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
- Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
- The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.
- Falling used auto prices and a reversal in health insurance prices should constrain the October core CPI.
- We expect a 0.5% core increase, with a bit of downside risk, but rent is still a threat…
- …And the disparate components of the core-core are unpredictable; they have overshot in recent months.
- Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
- The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
- Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.
- Used vehicle prices continue to fall sharply at auction; pass-through into the CPI is inevitable.
- No worries in the jobless claims data yet, but increases in the next few weeks would be disconcerting.
- Existing home sales likely were little changed in September, but don’t be deceived; this is not the floor.
- The sudden and dramatic plunge in the August job openings will move the Fed, if it persists...
- ...Similar reports for the next two months make 125bp of tightening by year-end very unlikely.
- The ISM services index likely dipped in September; the housing collapse and falling stock prices hurt.
- Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
- Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
- New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory.
- The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
- …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
- If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either.
- The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
- ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
- Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.
- Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
- Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
- Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.
- Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
- We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.
- Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
- Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.
- Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
- Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
- A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.
Core overstated by a technicality; underlying trends improving rapidly
- The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
- ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
- Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.
No chance now of a 50bp next week, but this is a setback not a reversal
- Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.
- Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
- Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.
- Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
- …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
- Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear
- Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
- The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
- The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.
Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?