Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil prices

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Nov 2021 Net Foreign Trade is Set to Augment Strong Domestic Demand in Q4

  • Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
  • ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
  • The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Nov 2021 Omicron is Coming to the U.S., but Worst-Case Scenario Looks Unlikely

  •  The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
  • …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
  • If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Nov 2021 Powell Stays in the Saddle, Tapering Unlikely to Accelerate in December

  • Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
  • ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
  • Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Nov 2021 The Surge in Used Vehicle Auto Prices is Starting to Slow

  • Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
  • A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
  • Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2021 Homebase Jobs Look Soft for November, Official Data Likely Better

  • The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
  • ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
  • October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Nov 2021 The Worst is Yet to Come: Core CPI Inflation will Soon Flirt with 7%

  • October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
  • ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
  • Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2021 October's Core CPI is at the Mercy of Used Cars, Airline Fares, and Rents

  • The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
  • Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
  • The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2021 Is Small Business Sentiment Rebounding as Delta Cases Fall?

  • Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
  • The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
  • Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Nov 2021 Payroll Momentum Building as the Economy Shakes off the Delta Blues

  • Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
  • Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
  • A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Nov 2021 Powell Adamant Higher Rates are not Yet Part of the FOMC Conversation

  • Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
  • The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
  • Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Nov 2021 Tapering is Coming, but what will Chair Powell Say About Inflation

  • The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
  • Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
  • Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2021 Covid Cases have Flattened, but the Decline Likely will soon Resume

  • The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
  • Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
  • New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Nov 2021 Higher Inflation and Faster Wages Signal Tough Time for "Transitory"

  • The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
  • ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
  • With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2021 Consumption Held Back Q3 GDP Growth; Blame Delta, and Chips

  • GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
  • If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
  • GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Oct 2021 Inflation Set for New Highs as Used Car Prices and Airline Fares Jump

Core CPI inflation looks set to power past 5% by the year-end as used car prices and airline fares rebound.

The peak will come early next year, but the rate will remain elevated for most of the year.

If unit labor costs remain controlled, the "transitory" story is sustainable, but expect pressure on the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

  • The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
  • As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
  • Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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