Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil prices

18 Nov 2022 US Monitor Can the Economy Really Grow by 4%+ in the Fourth Quarter?

  • Forecasts of GDP growth over 4% in Q4 might be right, but at this point they are premature.
  • Existing home sales likely fell again in October but can’t drop much further; prices can.
  • Used vehicle auction prices nudged up in early November; we hope it’s noise, not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2022 US Monitor Homebase Data Suggest Private Jobs Set for a 250K November Gain

  • November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
  • Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
  • The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2022 US Monitor A Third Straight Core CPI Blowout is Unlikely, but not Impossible

  • Falling used auto prices and a reversal in health insurance prices should constrain the October core CPI.
  • We expect a 0.5% core increase, with a bit of downside risk, but rent is still a threat…
  • …And the disparate components of the core-core are unpredictable; they have overshot in recent months. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Nov 2022 US Monitor Debt Ceiling, Government Spending Path are Contingent on Elections

  • Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
  • The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
  • Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Oct 2022 US Monitor Used Car Prices Falling Fast; Dealer Margins are Set to Drop, a Long Way

  • Used vehicle prices continue to fall sharply at auction; pass-through into the CPI is inevitable.
  • No worries in the jobless claims data yet, but increases in the next few weeks would be disconcerting.
  • Existing home sales likely were little changed in September, but don’t be deceived; this is not the floor.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2022 US Monitor Plunging Job Openings are a Potential Fed Game-Changer

  • The sudden and dramatic plunge in the August job openings will move the Fed, if it persists...
  • ...Similar reports for the next two months make 125bp of tightening by year-end very unlikely.
  • The ISM services index likely dipped in September; the housing collapse and falling stock prices hurt.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Sept 2022 US Monitor Under Normal Conditions, Rates have Risen Enough to Cause Recession

  • The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
  • …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
  • If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risks for August Housing Starts, but don't be Deceived

  • Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
  • Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
  • Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

  • Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
  • We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, August

Core overstated by a technicality; underlying trends improving rapidly

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, August

No chance now of a 50bp next week, but this is a setback not a reversal

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2022 US Monitor Home Prices are Falling, Take no Comfort from the Case-Shiller Data

Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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