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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
Flattered by higher oil prices, but expect Q2 GDP forecasts to move up nonetheless
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...
Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.
Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.
Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...
But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.
Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.
Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.
The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.
Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.
The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.
Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.
QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...
...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.
Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.
The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…
…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.
Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
We expect a 0.5% increase in the core CPI, led by rents, airline fares, and new vehicle prices...
...Behind this noise, though, the core-core CPI might now be slowing on a sequential basis.
The moderation in wage growth probably is reducing inflation pressure in an array of services components.
Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.
Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.
May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.
The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.
Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?
April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.
New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.
Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.
Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.
The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.
Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.
Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.
Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.
The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.
The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.
Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.
Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.
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