Pantheon Macroeconomics

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1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Feb 2021 19:30U.S.

6 Jan 2021 ISM Prices Paid Lifted by Oil Prices, the Real Inflation Risk is Elsewhere

We are not unduly concerned by the jump in theISM manufacturing prices paid index in January, toits highest level since May 2018.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

6 Oct 2020 Covid Threatens Medium-Term GDP Growth but the Story is not All Bad

The steep rise in the number of people unemployed for more than six months attracted a good deal of media attention after the release of Friday's August jobs report, as well...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

16 June 2020 Sales, Production Up in May, but a Very Long Way to Go

The two marquee economic reports today, covering May retail sales and industrial production, will capture the initial rebound after the economy hit bottom sometime in mid-April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

5 June 2020. Upside Risk to Payrolls Today, Downside for Unemployment, AHE

We set out the reasoning behind the big upward revision to our payroll forecast yesterday, in the wake of the much better-than-expected ADP report.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

3 June 2020 ADP Likely to Report a 10M Drop in May Payrolls, Risks in Both Directions

We're expecting ADP today to report a 10M drop in private payrolls in May, but investors should be braced for surprises, in either direction, because ADP's methodology is...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

27 May 2020 The Jump in Consumers' Inflation Expectations Doesn't Matter

Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th May 2020 20:20U.S.

13 May 2020 Core Inflation has Further to Fall, but Sustained Deflation is Unlikely

The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th May 2020 20:20U.S.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th May 2020 20:20U.S.

6 May 2020 ADP Today Likely will Understate the Hit to April Payrolls

Today's April ADP employment report likely will understate the scale of the net payroll losses which will be reported Friday by the BLS.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th May 2020 20:20U.S.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th May 2020 20:20U.S.

28 Apr 2020 The Fed is More Likely To Pursue Curve Control than Negative Rates

The Fed meeting today is unlikely to bring any significant policy shifts, mostly because the Fed has done everything we thought would be necessary once it became clear how badly...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

21 Apr 2020 All Pain and No Gain as Oil Prices Plunge, the Windfall is Unspent

Under normal circumstances, the boost to consumption from the astonishing collapse in oil prices would act as a substantial--though not complete--offset to the hit to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

14 Feb 2020 Upticks in Smaller CPI Components and Rent Healthcare Pose Threats

The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

13 Feb 2020 Core CPI Likely Back on Trend, Risks in Rent and Healthcare Persist

The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.

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