U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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oil
- We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
- The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
- ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
- October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
- Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
- Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
- Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
- Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
- …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
- Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in oil prices will materially slow the rate of U.S. economic growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
A year or so from now, if the economy is beset by stubbornly high inflation, and the Fed is hammering asset prices by aggressively tightening policy in order to stem a further upward twist of the spiral, it's a fair bet that we'll look back to last week's data and say: "That's when they should have thrown up their hands, admitted they underestimated the inflation pressures triggered by unprecedented policy easing, and signaled a shift in policy."
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
A further improvement in sentiment among small firms seems a decent bet for today's April NFIB survey.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
