Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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4 Mar 2021 ISM Services Prices Point to Inflation Beyond Mere Base Effects

The startling jump in the ISM services price index is the main story from the survey, released yesterday, not the modest and likely temporary dip in the headline index.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Mar 2021 19:20U.S.

22 Jan 2021 All the Key Housing Metrics Have Flattened, Except Prices

Most people buy homes--new and existing--with mortgage finance, so it follows that mortgage demand ought to lead the sales numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

9 Dec 2020 Will Mortgage Demand Surge Again Post-Covid?

Most of the time, we don't pay too much attention to the weekly mortgage applications numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, because the noise-to- signal ratio is too...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

1 Dec 2020 Help is Needed for the Unemployed, but the Employed Drive Growth

While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

18 Nov 2020 The Restaurant Recovery Stalled in October, Reversal in November

After five straight months of gains, during which the food service component of retail sales recovered 73% of the ground lost in March and April, during the initial Covid...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

21 Oct 2020 No Stimulus Deal Yet, but the Clock has not Yet Run Down Completely

As we reach our deadline on Tuesday afternoon, Eastern time, no agreement has been reached between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi on the next Covid relief...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jul 2020 20:10U.S.

22 July 2020 The Recovery in Existing Home Sales is Underway, More to Come

We remain very bullish on the housing market, given sustained 11-year highs in applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

2 July 2020 Another Increase in Payrolls is a Good Bet, but Anything Can Happen

ADP's measure of May private payrolls undershot the official estimate by 5.6 million, surprising everyone after it nailed the April catastrophe.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jul 2020 20:20U.S.

25 June 2020 Upside Risk for May Durable Goods, but it's Mostly Noise, not Signal

The headline May durable goods orders numbers today probably will look very strong, with the odds favoring a much bigger increase than the 10.1% consensus; we'll come back to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jun 2020 20:10U.S.

22 June 2020 Real-Time Data Signal the Economy is Expanding, but Some Weak Spots

Today brings only the May existing home sales report, previewed below, so we have an opportunity to look over the latest near-real-time data on economic activity. The picture is...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

16 June 2020 Sales, Production Up in May, but a Very Long Way to Go

The two marquee economic reports today, covering May retail sales and industrial production, will capture the initial rebound after the economy hit bottom sometime in mid-April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jun 2020 20:20U.S.

28 May 2020 Downward Pressure on Wages will Hold Down Inflation

Beyond the immediate wild swings in prices for food, clothing, hotel rooms and airline fares, the medium-term impact of the Covid outbreak on U.S. inflation will depend...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th May 2020 20:10U.S.

20 May 2020 The Labor Market Data will Drive Congress to Act Again

Fed Chair Powell broke no new ground in his Senate Testimony alongside--virtually--Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday, maintaining the cautious tone of his recent public...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th May 2020 20:20U.S.

14 May 2020 Jobless Claims Likely Fell Again, but the Consensus Looks Ambitious

We're expecting to see the sixth straight drop in initial jobless claims this week, though we think the 2,500K consensus forecast is too ambitious.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th May 2020 20:10U.S.

22 Apr 2020 Southern U.S. States Set to Try to Emulate Sweden, Will it Work?

The re-opening of businesses in Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, starting this week and expanding next week, comes as the rate of increase of confirmed Covid-19 infections...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

26 Mar 2020 Substantial Upside Risk for Jobless Claims, we Expect 3.5 Million

The consensus for today's first post-apocalypse jobless claims number, 1,500K, looks much too low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Mar 2020 20:10U.S.

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