U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
mortgage rates
- December’s Homebase data signal 400K payrolls, but big November revisions could shred the forecast.
- Whatever happened in December, we expect significantly slower job growth in the first half of next year.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment is bottoming, following the drop in mortgage rates, but housing is still very weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Manufacturing is struggling, but autos will flatter the production numbers as supply chains ease further.
- Capex plans in the Empire State survey have risen for three straight months, but other surveys are weaker.
- No end in sight for homebuilders’ misery; the latest surge in mortgage rates is yet to work through.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The renewed surge in mortgage rates is driving demand down further; home sales will follow.
- After 10 straight weeks of undershooting consensus, initial jobless claims clearly are falling.
- ISM services employment points to stronger payrolls, ADP says the opposite; neither is reliable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
- Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
- New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The very healthy state of the private sector’s finances stands between financial conditions and recession…
- …No one knows how far people will run down their savings, but they start with a gigantic pile of cash.
- If recession comes, it will be brief, and mild; without severe imbalances, recessions can’t be severe either.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
- Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
- The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
- Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
- Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
- We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
- The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
- ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
