Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?
Business lending standards are tightening, but credit growth is still strong, for now.
Plunging new home sales are dragging down prices, and hurting service sector activity surveys.
Upside risk for July durable goods orders today, but the housing collapse is worsening by the month.
Net trade and inventories look set to drive up Q3 GDP growth; we tentatively look for about 5%.
Imports are falling as demand for inventories fades; retailers over-ordered and now have excess inventory.
New home sales likely fell again in July, and prices are now under severe pressure as supply mounts.
The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.
The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.
The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.
Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...
...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.
The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.
The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…
…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound.
More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.
Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.
Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?
Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...
But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.
Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.
The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.
Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.
Soaring rates threaten to put the brakes on the recovery in capex, but the case is not closed...
...Businesses have never had so much spare cash, and neither have consumers; how will they use it?
Expect more bad housing news today; pending home sales likely fell sharply again in May.
New home sales have already dropped by 30% from their peak, but they have not hit bottom yet.
Inventory is rocketing, so prices are likely to come under severe pressure, very soon.
The surge in the Q1 current account deficit reflects the frenzy of inventory-building; it won’t last.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence