The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.
Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.
Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...
...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.
Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.
Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.
A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.
The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.
Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We expect a solid ADP print today, but it will have no bearing on our forecast for the official jobs number…
- …The Homebase data point clearly to substantial downside risk to the consensus payroll forecast.
- Housing activity is set to weaken further as mortgage rates head towards 5%.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The February PPI likely was boosted by soaring energy and food prices, but the March hit will be bigger.
- Core PPI inflation likely peaked in February; it looks set to fall sharply from the spring onwards.
- Base effects will hugely depress year-over-year chainstore sales growth over the next few months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The surge in gasoline prices will disproportionately hammer the poorest households...
- ...A policy response could include simply subsidizing gasoline spending for the bottom 40%.
- Real-time data suggest that the war in Ukraine and the gas price shock has hit spending on services.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell sticks to the tightening story, while ac-knowledging uncertainty due to the Ukraine war.
- The unwinding of the Omicron hit should mean lower claims and stronger ISM services today.
- The auto sales rebound is stalling, but Q1 sales still on course to rise by more than 40%, annualized.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Fed Chair Powell will acknowledge the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine…
- …But the impact on the U.S. is not big enough to justify a drastic pivot away from the tightening story.
- The manufacturing recovery continues, but the improvement in supply chains looks to be stalling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
- The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
- Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
- The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
- By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Rates will rise in March, but Powell suggests no bal- ance sheet run-off announcement until May...
- ...Even May is not certain, given the likelihood of a run of very weak activity data between now and then.
- Q4 GDP growth enjoyed a last-minute boost from surging December inventories, upside risk today.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
- Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
- Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
- If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
- We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
- Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
- We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
- Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
- Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Threats to rents, vehicle prices, airline fares and hotel room rates mean upside core CPI risk today.
- The next few months will see core inflation rise towards 7%; the Fed's pivot is a pre-emptive strike.
- It's still reasonable to expect inflation to fall very sharply next year, but the Fed can't be certain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
