- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
- …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
- If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
- ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
- Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
- A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
- Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Momentum is building in payrolls; the next few months should see 1M-plus gains.
- Substantially faster payroll growth requires a clear increase in participation; that's a decent bet.
- A rebalancing of labor demand and supply would reduce the upward pressure on wage growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The supply chain nightmare is a consequence of a sudden change in initial conditions...
- ...In some systems, such changes trigger chaos; the outcomes appear wild, or random, but they aren't.
- Eventually, the system will respond; initial conditions will mean-revert; and supply chain chaos will end.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
- ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
- Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
- ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
- The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
- …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
- The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
- China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
- New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
- The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
- Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
