Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

markets

3 June 2022 Payroll Growth Appears to have Slowed, but it Remains Strong

The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.

The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.

Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2022 Recent Data are Mixed, but No Sign of the Feared Rollover

The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.

The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.

Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Mar 2022 Inventories are the Wild Card for Q1 Growth, a Big Drag is Likely

  • A big drag from inventories means we have pulled down our Q1 GDP forecast to zero…
  • …Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter, because final demand looks solid.
  • Chainstore sales growth is slowing rapidly, but mostly—perhaps entirely—due to adverse base effects.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Mar 2022 Food Inflation Likely will Rise, but by Less than you Might Think

  • Some of the huge spike in food commodity prices will work its way into the CPI, but not much...
  • ...U.S. consumers buy processed food, and most of the price is labor; it's different in emerging markets.
  • A drop in JOLTS job openings in January would be a good thing, signalling rising labor supply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Feb 2022 Welcome (Back) to the Cold War

  • The path of the military conflict in Ukraine is unknowable, but some economic consequences are clear…
  • …The immediate hits to growth and inflation will be 
    bigger in Europe than in the U.S.
  • In the long term, western defense spending has to 
    rise, massively; Europe has to pay for energy security

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Feb 2022 Russia will Come off Worst in the Long Run if Putin Invades Ukraine

  • The extreme uncertainty over developments in Ukraine make the macro implications unclear.
  • A war would drive up energy prices, but Europe wouldn't freeze, given alternative supply sources.
  • The permanent hit to relations with Russia would drive up spending on defense and energy security.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Feb 2022 Markets Expect too Much from the Fed in 2022, but not Enough Later

  • Markets are becoming too aggressive on the likely pace of Fed tightening this year...
  • ...But they aren't aggressive enough on the question of the terminal rate, given rising productivity growth.
  • They won't start to talk about rising r-star until much later this year, once the current inflation spike is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Feb 2022 Inflation is Approaching its Peak, but it's not Quite there Yet

  • No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
  • The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
  • ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Feb 2022 Omicron is Fading, but Recovery is Still Early, and BA.2 is a Risk

  • U.S. Covid cases are plunging, and the worst of the economic hit seems to be over...
  • ...But the recovery is still early-stage, and the BA.2 variant could push cases back up, temporarily.
  • Small firms' sentiment likely hit by stock market vola- tility; what's happening to prices?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Feb 2022 Productivity Noise is Drowning the Signal, but the Outlook is Good

  • Productivity growth rebounded in Q4, but the more important point is that the outlook is very bright...
  • ...Stronger productivity growth over the medium-term would boost real incomes and corporate earnings.
  • The Omicron hit means downside risk to today's ISM services index; expect better in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Feb 2022 A Hit to the ISM from Omicron, but not a Knockout Blow

  • The ISM index likely dipped in January, but a big Omicron hit seems to have been averted.
  • The construction recovery has been driven entirely by housing, but the story is changing…
  • …Industrial and commercial construction is rebounding strongly, but housing activity is set to drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Jan 2022 The Omicron Hit is Set to Limit the Fed's Freedom to Act in March

  • We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
  • The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
  • By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence