Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

markets

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Dec 2021 Omicron Cases Soaring, but Hospitalizations to be Contained?

  • U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
  • Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
  • Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Dec 2021 Debt Ceiling Deal Means More Net Issuance, as the Fed Tapers Faster

  • The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
  • Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
  • Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Dec 2021 Rates Set to Rise in May, but the Fed can Sit Out the Summer

  • The Fed likely will want to take out further insurance, beyond faster tapering, against upside inflation risk.
  • Restoring 2% inflation requires supply chains to ease, wage gains to slow, and productivity growth to rise.
  • Individually, these are all much better than 50/50 shots but the Fed needs them all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Nov 2021 The Fed has Three Conditions for Rate Hikes, One is Still Some Way Off

  • The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
  • ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
  • The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Nov 2021 The Worst is Yet to Come: Core CPI Inflation will Soon Flirt with 7%

  • October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
  • ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
  • Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Nov 2021 Tapering is Coming, but what will Chair Powell Say About Inflation

  • The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
  • Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
  • Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Nov 2021 Higher Inflation and Faster Wages Signal Tough Time for "Transitory"

  • The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
  • ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
  • With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Oct 2021 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but are they an Inflation Threat

  • Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
  • ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
  • The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Oct 2021 Has the CPI Accident Waiting to Happen, Just Happened?

  • September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
  • ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
  • Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Oct 2021 Congress has a Long Way to Go, but the BIF and BBB will Pass

  • Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
  • Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
  • Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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