Pantheon Macroeconomics

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markets

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Feb 2021 19:30U.S.

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 08:32U.S.

17 Dec 2020 Opportunity Missed as the FOMC Leaves QE Unchanged

The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, by choosing not to increase the weighted average maturity--WAM--of its Treasury purchases.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

14 Dec 2020 Soaring Margins Could Drive Inflation if Demand Explodes Post-Covid

The conventional way to model U.S. inflation a year or two ahead is to start with a projection for the rate of increase of unit labor costs, and then tweak it to account for...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

10 Dec 2020 Upside Risk for Jobless Claims, Last Week's Drop was Seasonal Noise

Most of the pre-release focus in markets this morning will be on the November CPI, but we see potential for more excitement over the weekly initial jobless claims numbers, where...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Dec 2020 19:10U.S.

7 Dec 2020 No Relief in Sight for the Labor Market

We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

23 Nov 2020 Increased QE More Likely After the Treasury Kills Fed Lending Programs

The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

12 Nov 2020 The 2021 Inflation Outlook is Very Uncertain

We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

4 Nov 2020 Whatever Happens in the WH Race, the Senate Could Take Much Longer

The final run of the FiveThirtyEight election model gives Joe Biden an 89% chance of victory. In the accompanying commentary, however, they argue that it's a "fine line...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

20 Oct 2020 The U.S. Monetary Expansion Might Boost Inflation After Covid...or Not

If you were to return home to find your home ablaze, heaven forbid, and the fire department hard at work to douse the flames, would you be more concerned about your impending...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

28 Sept 2020 36 Days to Go, Who will Win, and What will they Do?

First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

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