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The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…
…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.
Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.
Soaring rates threaten to put the brakes on the recovery in capex, but the case is not closed...
...Businesses have never had so much spare cash, and neither have consumers; how will they use it?
Expect more bad housing news today; pending home sales likely fell sharply again in May.
Don’t be deceived; the market is cratering and prices are coming under pressure
New home sales have already dropped by 30% from their peak, but they have not hit bottom yet.
Inventory is rocketing, so prices are likely to come under severe pressure, very soon.
The surge in the Q1 current account deficit reflects the frenzy of inventory-building; it won’t last.
May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.
The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.
Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.
A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…
…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.
The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.
Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.
The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.
New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.
Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.
Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.
Don’t be misled by a modest dip in April existing home sales today; bigger declines are coming.
Inventory appears to be rebounding, at last, so the rate of home price increases will start to slow.
The Philly Fed likely dropped sharply this month, but the Ukraine/China hit will not break manufacturing.
The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.
People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.
The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.
The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…
…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.
Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.
Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...
...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.
The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.
The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...
...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.
The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.
We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...
...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.
AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...
...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.
Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.
The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.
Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.
The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.
The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.
Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.
Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.
The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.
Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.
Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.
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