- The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
- Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
- The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.
Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.
The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.
Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.
Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged?
Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over.
Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.
Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.
Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.
Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.
The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
- Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
- Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
- ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
- The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our interpretation of the Homebase data suggests payroll growth stalled in March…
- …This might be nothing more than a blip, or Homebase could be wrong; but it's not what we expected.
- Auction data show the drop in used vehicle prices is accelerating; downside risk for existing home sales.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed's plan to hike seven times this year is based on inflation forecasts which look too bearish…
- …But longer-run rate forecasts look too optimistic; perhaps because no one now wants to talk about r*.
- Retail sales data show consumers not fazed by Omicron; downside risk for February IP data today.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Headline and core inflation will peak in March; the key question now is the speed of the subsequent drop.
- The Fed needs to see falling vehicle prices, slower wage gains and improving supply chains.
- These are all reasonable bets, but they aren't certain in terms of both timing and extent.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- U.S. headline inflation is likely to hit 8%, but it will go much higher if oil prices keep rising.
- Consumers' huge cash pile means people don't have to cut back other spending as gas prices surge.
- The Fed need not deviate from its tightening plans, unless markets collapse.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Rapid payroll growth will continue for some time yet, but a return to the pre-Covid trend is unlikely...
- ...Participation, especially among older people, is unlikely to reverse the entire Covid-driven plunge.
- The soft February wage data are more noise than signal, but the trend probably is no longer accelerating.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Homebase data suggest February payrolls rose about 600K, but the margin or error is very wide.
- Wage growth recently has been much too strong for the Fed's comfort, but rising labor supply should help.
- The third straight drop in the ISM services index was disappointing, but a March rebound is a good bet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Fed Chair Powell will acknowledge the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine…
- …But the impact on the U.S. is not big enough to justify a drastic pivot away from the tightening story.
- The manufacturing recovery continues, but the improvement in supply chains looks to be stalling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The post-Omicron rebound in demand for consumer services is underway, but watch out for base effects.
- Manufacturing growth appears to be slowing, but the sector continues to expand.
- The soaring trade deficit and rapid domestic inventory rebuild are two sides of the same coin.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
- The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
- The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
- The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
- Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Flattered by weather effects; manufacturing hit by Omicron?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
