Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

manufacturing sector

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, November

Survey data point to weaker growth but also lower inflation.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

17 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Consumer Refuses to Stick to the Rollover Script; 3%+ in Q4

  • Strong retail sales suggest the consumer will drive fourth quarter GDP growth...
  • ...Even as the non-auto manufacturing sector sinks into a mild recession.
  • Housing construction is falling fast, but it still has a long way to go, even if demand bottoms soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Nov 2022 US Monitor JOLTS Already Signals Slower Job Gains; Brace for a Further Decline

  • The plunge in job openings was the biggest surprise in the August data; what happened in September?
  • The ISM manufacturing index likely fell again in October, but it remains well above recession levels.
  • Auto sales appear to have rebounded very strongly in October as supply continued to improve.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Proportionality Rule Suggests a Serious 2023 Recession is Unlikely

  • Recessions are proportional to the prior imbalances, and right now the private sector is in good shape…
  • …A brief over-reaction to the extent of the Fed’s tightening is possible; a deep recession is unlikely.
  • Hints of a pivot played well in markets last week, but the Fed needs better data, soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Struggling, but the News is not All Terrible

  • Manufacturing is struggling, but autos will flatter the production numbers as supply chains ease further.
  • Capex plans in the Empire State survey have risen for three straight months, but other surveys are weaker.
  • No end in sight for homebuilders’ misery; the latest surge in mortgage rates is yet to work through.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, September

Disappointing, but clear signals of downward pressure on inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

  • Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
  • We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2022 US Monitor New Auto Sales Likely Stagnated in August, but Better News is Coming

  • Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
  • The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
  • ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Lending Standards are Tightening, but no Hit is Visible, Yet

Business lending standards are tightening, but credit growth is still strong, for now.

Plunging new home sales are dragging down prices, and hurting service sector activity surveys.

Upside risk for July durable goods orders today, but the housing collapse is worsening by the month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2022 US Monitor First Look at August Payrolls Suggests Another Hefty Increase

The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.

Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.

Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Aug 2022 US Monitor Current Labor Costs Growth is Scary, but it won't be Sustained

The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…

…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound. 

More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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