Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

lodging

22 Oct 2021 Inflation Set for New Highs as Used Car Prices and Airline Fares Jump

Core CPI inflation looks set to power past 5% by the year-end as used car prices and airline fares rebound.

The peak will come early next year, but the rate will remain elevated for most of the year.

If unit labor costs remain controlled, the "transitory" story is sustainable, but expect pressure on the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Oct 2021 Has the CPI Accident Waiting to Happen, Just Happened?

  • September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
  • ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
  • Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2021 Covid-Sensitive Components Drove the April CPI, What Next

In order to transition from low Covid-induced inflation to the sustained increases needed to persuade the Fed to tighten policy—remember, they have vowed to react to inflation data, not forecasts—three things have to happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2021 An Array of Core CPI Components Look Set to Rise in April

It was easy for inflation doves to dismiss the 0.34% jump in the March core CPI as merely a correction, after three straight small increases, averaging just 0.06%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence