U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
labor market
- A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
- Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
- Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Job growth is slowing, on track to slip below 100K by next March, pushing up unemployment.
- Wage growth appears to be softening, though the data are not quite definitive, yet.
- If recent trends continue, and core CPI prints moder- ate, Chair Powell’s stance will have to change.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell wants slower growth, better core inflation, and a looser labor market before the Fed pivots...
- ...Those criteria have not yet been met, despite better pipeline inflation, so expect no change in tone today.
- We now expect a 175K increase in October payrolls; a slowdown, but not a rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
- Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
- The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We see upside risk for third quarter GDP growth; net trade likely drove growth to 3.1%.
- Demand for labor is slowing, despite very low and stable initial jobless claims.
- September durable goods orders likely boosted by aircraft, but core capex looks solid too, for now.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
- Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
- New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
- ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
- But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
- Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
- The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
- ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
- Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
- We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
- ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
- Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
- …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
- Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
- Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
- Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
- Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
- Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
- The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
- The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
- Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
- The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
- The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
- Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
