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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.
The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.
People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.
Homebase employment data point to downside risk against consensus for July payrolls…
…But the problem remains lack of supply, not lack of demand; expect things to change in the fall
Look for unemployment to dip, and another solid increase in average hourly earnings.
Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…
…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.
Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.
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