Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
- Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
- Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
- The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
- ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
- October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
- A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
- ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
- Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
- Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
- ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
- The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.
- Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
- Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
- New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.
- We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
- Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
- The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
- Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
- It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
- As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.
- Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
- ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
- The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.
- Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
- Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
- It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
- The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
- ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
- Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?
- Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
- The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
- Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs
- Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
- Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
- Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.