Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ism manufacturing survey

17 May 2022 Homebase Data Suggest May Payrolls Rose by About 250K

The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.

Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.

Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 May 2022 It's too Soon for Chair Powell to Sound Less Hawkish

The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...

...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.

Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2022 Manufacturing is Set to Slow, but it is an Unreliable Guide to GDP Growth

The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.

Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.

The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, April

Unexpectedly soft, but more volatile than the national ISM index

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Apr 2022 New Home Sales are Heading South, but the Data are Volatile

The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.

Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.

Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Apr 2022 Real-Time Indicators Holding Up, but Housing Demand is Falling Rapidly

The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged? 

Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over. 

Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Apr 2022 FOMC Minutes Likely to Show Heightened Inflation Fears

The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.

Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.

The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Apr 2022 BA.2 is Pushing up Covid Cases, but Expect a Limited Economic Impact

The BA.2 variant is now pushing up Covid cases in the Northeast, and it will spread rapidly.

...But we are increasingly confident that the economic hit will be much smaller than during the Omicron wave.

ISM services set to rebound in the wake of the recovery in mobility; employent set to jump too?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Mar 2022 Homebase Data Signal Weak March Payrolls, Despite Recent Strength

  • Our interpretation of the Homebase data suggests payroll growth stalled in March…
  • …This might be nothing more than a blip, or Homebase could be wrong; but it's not what we expected.
  • Auction data show the drop in used vehicle prices is accelerating; downside risk for existing home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Mar 2022 The Fed's Intent is Clear, but Risks Abound, in Both Directions

  • The Fed's plan to hike seven times this year is based on inflation forecasts which look too bearish…
  • …But longer-run rate forecasts look too optimistic; perhaps because no one now wants to talk about r*.
  • Retail sales data show consumers not fazed by Omicron; downside risk for February IP data today. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Mar 2022 Food Inflation Likely will Rise, but by Less than you Might Think

  • Some of the huge spike in food commodity prices will work its way into the CPI, but not much...
  • ...U.S. consumers buy processed food, and most of the price is labor; it's different in emerging markets.
  • A drop in JOLTS job openings in January would be a good thing, signalling rising labor supply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Mar 2022 8% Headline Inflation is Likely in March, but Consumers Can Cope

  • U.S. headline inflation is likely to hit 8%, but it will go much higher if oil prices keep rising.
  • Consumers' huge cash pile means people don't have to cut back other spending as gas prices surge.
  • The Fed need not deviate from its tightening plans, unless markets collapse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Mar 2022 Further Big Job Gains are Likely, but a Full Recovery will Remain Elusive

  • Rapid payroll growth will continue for some time yet, but a return to the pre-Covid trend is unlikely...
  • ...Participation, especially among older people, is unlikely to reverse the entire Covid-driven plunge.
  • The soft February wage data are more noise than signal, but the trend probably is no longer accelerating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Mar 2022 February Payrolls Look Solid, but Forecast Margins of Error are Wide

  • The Homebase data suggest February payrolls rose about 600K, but the margin or error is very wide.
  • Wage growth recently has been much too strong for the Fed's comfort, but rising labor supply should help.
  • The third straight drop in the ISM services index was disappointing, but a March rebound is a good bet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Mar 2022 The Fed is on Course to Start Tightening, but will be "Nimble"

  • Chair Powell sticks to the tightening story, while ac-knowledging uncertainty due to the Ukraine war.
  • The unwinding of the Omicron hit should mean lower claims and stronger ISM services today.
  • The auto sales rebound is stalling, but Q1 sales still on course to rise by more than 40%, annualized.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Mar 2022 Mr. Powell will Hedge Today, but the Tightening Message will be Repeated

  • Fed Chair Powell will acknowledge the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine…
  • …But the impact on the U.S. is not big enough to justify a drastic pivot away from the tightening story.
  • The manufacturing recovery continues, but the improvement in supply chains looks to be stalling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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