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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate. The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once...
A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period--that is, the week, two weeks, or month--which included Monday, July 12, counts as...
In one line: Further to fall; demand has dropped.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
In one line: Progress continues, but the Empire State surge is an outlier. Price pressures peaking?
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
In one line: Headline hit by fading stimulus kick, but still high.
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
In one line: Hints that supply chain problems have peaked; growth still strong.
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
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