U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
investors
- Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
- ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
- The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Markets are becoming too aggressive on the likely pace of Fed tightening this year...
- ...But they aren't aggressive enough on the question of the terminal rate, given rising productivity growth.
- They won't start to talk about rising r-star until much later this year, once the current inflation spike is over.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
- The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
- ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- January's ADP employment number today is a wild card, thanks to the Omicron Covid hit.
- Excess labor demand is no longer rising, but it has not yet started to fall.
- Supply chain pressures are easing, but normalcy is still some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
- The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
- By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
- Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
- Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
- If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
- We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
- The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
- Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
- A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
- The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
- Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
- Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
- Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
- Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
