Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

investors

28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Feb 2022 Markets Expect too Much from the Fed in 2022, but not Enough Later

  • Markets are becoming too aggressive on the likely pace of Fed tightening this year...
  • ...But they aren't aggressive enough on the question of the terminal rate, given rising productivity growth.
  • They won't start to talk about rising r-star until much later this year, once the current inflation spike is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Feb 2022 Inflation is Approaching its Peak, but it's not Quite there Yet

  • No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
  • The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
  • ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Feb 2022 ADP is a Wild Card Today, Like all the January Employment Data

  • January's ADP employment number today is a wild card, thanks to the Omicron Covid hit.
  • Excess labor demand is no longer rising, but it has not yet started to fall.
  • Supply chain pressures are easing, but normalcy is still some way off.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Jan 2022 The Omicron Hit is Set to Limit the Fed's Freedom to Act in March

  • We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
  • The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
  • By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Jan 2022 The First Look at January Payrolls is not for the Faint-Hearted

  • The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
  • The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
  • Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Jan 2022 December Payroll Risk is to the Upside, did Participation Rise Again

  • The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
  • A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
  • The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Dec 2021 Omicron Cases Soaring, but Hospitalizations to be Contained?

  • U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
  • Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
  • Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence