Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

inventories

10 Nov 2021 October's Core CPI is at the Mercy of Used Cars, Airline Fares, and Rents

  • The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
  • Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
  • The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Oct 2021 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but are they an Inflation Threat

  • Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
  • ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
  • The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2021 Consumption Held Back Q3 GDP Growth; Blame Delta, and Chips

  • GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
  • If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
  • GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2021 Q3 Growth Set for 4-to-5%, but Inventories are a Wild Card

  • The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
  • …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
  • Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence