Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Aug 2020 20:20U.S.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th May 2020 20:20U.S.

29 Apr 2020 The Expansion Ended in Q1, but Q2 will be Much Worse

We expect to learn today that first quarter GDP fell at a 4.3% annualized rate, but the margin of error here is bigger than usual. Under normal circumstances we're...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

17 Mar 2020 Q2 GDP Set to Plunge by About 10%, Stocks have Further to Fall

We were not hugely surprised to see stocks tank again yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

5 Mar 2020 ADP Likely Overstates February Payrolls, but Everything will Change

The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Mar 2020 19:10U.S.

4 Mar 2020 More to Come from the Fed, but Fiscal Policy has to Step Up too

We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.

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