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Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.
29th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.
The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...
27th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.
We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...
26th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.
Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...
25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.
We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...
1st Oct 2020 20:20U.S.
Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.
14th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.
The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.
6th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.
Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.
5th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.
The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...
4th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.
Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.
3rd Aug 2020 20:20U.S.
The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.
11th May 2020 20:20U.S.
We expect to learn today that first quarter GDP fell at a 4.3% annualized rate, but the margin of error here is bigger than usual. Under normal circumstances we're...
28th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.
We were not hugely surprised to see stocks tank again yesterday.
16th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.
5th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.
4th Mar 2020 19:10U.S.
We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
3rd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.
2nd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.
1st Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.
27th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.
The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the...
26th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.
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