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Net trade and inventories look set to drive up Q3 GDP growth; we tentatively look for about 5%.
Imports are falling as demand for inventories fades; retailers over-ordered and now have excess inventory.
New home sales likely fell again in July, and prices are now under severe pressure as supply mounts.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
GDP hit by inventories, but final demand softened and will be weaker in Q3
The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.
Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.
The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.
Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.
The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.
Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.
Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...
...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.
The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year
The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…
…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.
Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
We expect a 0.5% increase in the core CPI, led by rents, airline fares, and new vehicle prices...
...Behind this noise, though, the core-core CPI might now be slowing on a sequential basis.
The moderation in wage growth probably is reducing inflation pressure in an array of services components.
The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...
...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.
The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.
Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.
Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.
Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.
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