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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...
Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?
Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.
Soaring rates threaten to put the brakes on the recovery in capex, but the case is not closed...
...Businesses have never had so much spare cash, and neither have consumers; how will they use it?
Expect more bad housing news today; pending home sales likely fell sharply again in May.
Manufacturing softening follows several strong months; auto production recovering
May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.
The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.
Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.
The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.
The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.
Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.
The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.
Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?
April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.
The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.
People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.
The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.
The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.
Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.
Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.
The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged?
Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over.
Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March.
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