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Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…
…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.
The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.
The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…
…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.
Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.
A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…
But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…
…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.
PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.
Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.
The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.
Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.
The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.
The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.
Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.
We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...
Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.
The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.
The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.
People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.
The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.
The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...
...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.
The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.
The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...
...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.
Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.
The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.
Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.
The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.
Unexpectedly soft, but more volatile than the national ISM index
The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.
Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.
A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.
The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.
Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.
Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.
Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.
The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.
The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.
The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.
Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.
The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.
The BA.2 variant is now pushing up Covid cases in the Northeast, and it will spread rapidly.
...But we are increasingly confident that the economic hit will be much smaller than during the Omicron wave.
ISM services set to rebound in the wake of the recovery in mobility; employent set to jump too?
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