Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
- …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
- Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.
- September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
- ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
- Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.
- We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
- Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
- The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
- Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
- ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
- The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
- The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
- Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
- The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.
- We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
- Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
- Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.
- The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
- Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
- New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?
The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.
We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.
Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.
- Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
- States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
- The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.
- The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
- Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
- The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
- The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
- ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
- Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?
- In one line: This is just the start of the Delta hit; tapering delayed.
- A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
- September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
- Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.
- Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
- The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
- Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September
- We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
- China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
- New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales