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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Wage and price pressures high, for now, but the outlook is uncertain.
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period--that is, the week, two weeks, or month--which included Monday, July 12, counts as...
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
The Covid picture nationally continues to improve, with the seven-day average number of cases now at just 11.1K, down 24% from a week ago and 62% from a month ago.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
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