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Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...
...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.
The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...
But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.
Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.
Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.
Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.
The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.
Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...
...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.
The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…
…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.
The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.
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