- The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
- Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
- The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
- The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
- Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
- A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
- The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
- ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
- Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
- The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
- The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
- Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
- Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
- Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
- Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.
We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.
The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.
Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.
The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.
The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.
Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.
The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...
...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Headline inflation is unlikely to rise much further, but the core rate still some way to climb.
- Faster rent inflation is now well-established, and upward pressure elsewhere is yet to peak.
- A steep drop inflation from next spring remains a good bet, but the Fed needs insurance.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Threats to rents, vehicle prices, airline fares and hotel room rates mean upside core CPI risk today.
- The next few months will see core inflation rise towards 7%; the Fed's pivot is a pre-emptive strike.
- It's still reasonable to expect inflation to fall very sharply next year, but the Fed can't be certain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
- The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
- ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
- Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases are rising in states with low vax rates, waning vax efficacy, and low prior infections...
- ...Colder weather likely is boosting infections in the northern half of the country; expect NE cases to soar.
- New treatment and vaccine protection against severe disease will keep hospitalizations and deaths down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
- A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
- Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
