Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a full list of our U.S. Publications.

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15 Dec 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but not in a Straight Line

The industrial economy continues to recover, buoyed by a combination of strong domestic demand for goods, both consumer and capital, including anything housing-related, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.

26 Feb 2020 The Fed's "Too Soon to Tell" Line Won't Hold if Markets Keep Falling

The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

7 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Payrolls Today, but Forward-Looking Surveys are Soft

We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.

5 Feb 2020 ADP Likely to Report Strong Job Growth in January

Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully"

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

16 Jan 2020 No Repeat of the December 2018 Plunge in Retail Sales

Ahead of the release of the retail sales report for December 2018, markets expected to see unchanged non-auto sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jan 2020 19:10U.S.

8 Jan 2020 ADP is Unlikely To Repeat November's Huge Undershoot

The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

7 Jan 2020 Oil Prices haven't Risen Enough to Disturb Consumers, Yet

The jump in oil prices over the past two trading days eventually will lift retail gasoline prices by about 35 cents per gallon, or 131⁄2%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

6 Jan 2020 Markets in Defensive Crouch, Awaiting Iran's Response

It's hard to overstate the geopolitical importance of Friday's assassination of Qassim Soleimani, architect of Iran's external military activity for more than 20 years...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

3 Jan 2020 Manufacturing Still Struggling, but no Longer Sinking Deeper

The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

2 Jan 2020 The Post-Tariffs Plunge in Imports Continues, but not Forever

While were out over the holidays, the single biggest surprise in the data was yet another drop in imports, reported in the advance trade numbers for November.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Dec 2019 08:43U.S.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too?

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Nov 2019 19:20U.S.

26 Nov 2019 The Export Collapse Signalled by the Late Summer ISM has been Averted

We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2019 19:20U.S.

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