Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
- GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
- If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
- GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.
- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.
- Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
- ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
- The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.
- The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
- ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
- Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.