Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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implications Growth

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

  • Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
  • A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
  • Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Sept 2021 Payroll Gains Likely Losing Momentum, Thanks to Delta

  • A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
  • September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
  • Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2021 The Delta Wave is Making Itself Felt in Labor Market Data, More to Come

  • Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
  • The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
  • Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2021 ADP Likely to Report a Solid Gain in August Private Payrolls

  • We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
  • China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
  • New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2021 Q3 Growth Set for 4-to-5%, but Inventories are a Wild Card

  • The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
  • …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
  • Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2021 Is the Delta Wave Pushing up Mortgage Demand

  • Mortgage demand appears to be rebounding strongly, despite only a very modest dip in rates...
  • ...Has the Covid surge triggered another—albeit smaller—flight to the suburbs?
  • Jobless claims likely unchanged this week, but the trend is downwards, despite Delta.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure and Social Spending Bills will Pass, Eventually

We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.

Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.

New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2021 China Decoupling is a Distraction from Cyclical Developments

  • The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
  • ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Aug 2021 Falling Layoffs are Welcome, but they don't Guarantee Faster Job Gains

  • The decline in jobless claims tells us gross layoffs are falling, but it says nothing about the pace of hiring.
  • Firms hit by the Delta wave are more likely to cut back recruitment first, before laying off staff.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that supply-chain shortages are no longer intensifying.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2021 Third Quarter GDP Growth is Coming Under Delta Pressure

  • Thailand's economy defied gravity in Q2, but trade is unlikely to provide much of a boost—if any—in Q3.
  • The Delta squeeze on consumption will persist, but a collapse is unlikely and capex should stay afloat.
  • Don't read too much into the jump in remittances in the Philippines in June; the trend remains weak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Aug 2021 July Data Likely to Show Payrolls Still Struggling to Build Momentum

Homebase employment data point to downside risk against consensus for July payrolls…

…But the problem remains lack of supply, not lack of demand; expect things to change in the fall

Look for unemployment to dip, and another solid increase in average hourly earnings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 July 2021 Brace for Another Outsized Jump in Employment Costs

Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…

…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.

Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2021 Progress Made, but not "Sufficient Further Progress", Yet

Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.

The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.

Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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